Spike set on turn, face large reraise on river

[mrface]

Party 25NL table, sitting to the left of villain who has large stack. When I sat down he had about 200, and he now has 175. He has been raising pretty often preflop (anywhere from min to 12x BB) and making continuation bets on the flop. He also sees a lot of flops from any position even if he doesn't raise (I had him at around 75vpip). He will slow down to resistance to his continuation bets if he doesn't have a good hand, often check-folding or sometimes check-calling if his hand is decent. I had seen him check-call with 2-pair from the flop on a board T862Q no flushes, his hand holding up against a lower 2-pair. In general he has been playing pretty solid post-flop and I hadn't seen any large bluffs or strange plays from him.

Additionally, he seemed to particularly respect my calls, bets, and raises and would almost always check to me if I showed any resistance to his bets.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($3.45)
BB ($32.25)
UTG ($50.46)
UTG+1 ($175.91)
Hero ($41.25)
MP1 ($52.32)
MP2 ($18.40)
MP3 ($13.49)
CO ($28.55)
Button ($23.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.35) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks.

Turn: ($1.35) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $1</font>, Hero calls $1, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, BB folds.

River: ($3.35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $55</font>, Hero ???

Final Pot: $73.35

[gulebjorn]

Why don't you raise that turn???

Smile and call on the river, of course.

[mrface]

I agree the turn call was bad. At the time I saw the rainbow board and was hoping for some overcalls from hands that were drawing dead. I also didn't want to totally kill my action from villain if he didn't have a hand. However I think I overestimated the amount people will overcall there and overlooked the fact that villain will often check to me on river without a good hand. In particular, I think the latter makes this a clear raise.

However, I don't think the river is that clear.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
However, I don't think the river is that clear.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well since you can't reraise all-in, you don't have any other options.

Oh wait, you were thinking of folding? *giggle*

[gulebjorn]

what are you scared of? 75? 88? You'll get rid of 88 the next time if you raise the turn.

Looking back at this, he probably has 88.

But I still think it's a call, even with your line.

[gulebjorn]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However, I don't think the river is that clear.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well since you can't reraise all-in, you don't have any other options.

Oh wait, you were thinking of folding? *giggle*

[/ QUOTE ]

Good one [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[RedRum]

I don't mind your flop check, but given the action to the Turn - fist full of limpers with no interest in the flop - any 2 can bet that turn card. Not to say I'll limp UTG+1 with 7/5s but we are talking about Party 25, and a villian with 75vpip here.

Still, if he's got me, he's got me and I reload. Turn you have to raise, and river you have to call.

Drink More,
RedRum

[Finite_Risk]

If this guy had 88 and had been raising a bunch of pots like mentioned, chances are he'd have raised this one pre-flop too

[mrface]

It seems like everyone thinks this is an easy call, and against 99% of 25 NL players I auto-call here, but in this case I folded. I may be wrong as everyone seems to disagree, but here's what I was thinking:

His bet on the turn could really mean any 2, but once he leads into me again on the river for more than pot, I know he has a strong hand. At worst I put him on top pair, but I think that's pretty unlikely since he didn't bet flop, so at least two-pair. Given that I make a large raise, thinking he will often call with any 2-pair.

Once he reraises I have $25 left, making it $25 more to call into about $55, or about 2.2-1. That means for this call to be profitable I have to be good at least 30% of the time. Given my read I am sure he would never make this reraise with a single pair, and I think it is really unlikely that he would make it with any 2-pair. So basically I think I can only beat a bluff as the minimum hand he would make this play with is a set, and I have the worst set. There might also be a small chance my read is wrong and he's overplaying a 2-pair.

I think he bluffs here a VERY small amount of the time, probably less than 5% as I have shown a lot of strength with my raise and he must think I will be willing to call a push. Plus I have never seen him make any move like this, and he has never played a big pot without a great hand. Furthermore, his initial bet of $4 makes me think it's even more unlikely that his reraise is a bluff, as that bet from him really indicates strength.

So even if he bluffs 10% of the time, and my read is wrong another 10% (I think both values are closer to 2-5%), it still is correct for me to fold. Folding bottom set on such a safe board seems really wrong, but given my read I thought it was the best play. I may be totally wrong, but I think my logic is sound.

After the hand he told me that he had set tens, which I'm not sure I believe, but it's possible.

[amoeba]

fold is fine but I still think you should raise the turn to build a pot.