OOP non-nut draw + continuation

[liquid]

Critique of all streets welcome.

$100 PLO, loose-passive.
Seat 1: Hero [9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] (UTG+2, $100)
Seat 6: Foe ($160)

ANTES/BLINDS
B1 posts blind ($1), B2 posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP
UTG folds, UTG+1 bets $4, Hero calls $4, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Foe calls $4, B1 folds, B2 calls $3.

($17) FLOP [8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
B2 checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $10, Foe calls $10, B2 folds, UTG+1 folds.

($37) TURN [4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
Hero bets $25.

[joewatch]

Standard play. Fold to a raise, check-fold the river if called unless you suck out with a K.

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
Standard play. Fold to a raise, check-fold the river if called unless you suck out with a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true as long as you also always would bet a full here.

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]
Standard play. Fold to a raise, check-fold the river if called unless you suck out with a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not much cash PLO experience, so be gentle.

Its definitely not a good play on his part, but in a $100 game isn't possible that he's still in there with J8 or with a good flush/straight draw.?

With a river check, might he be inclined to try and bluff the river?

If the river is a blank, I'd be inclined to make a smaller defensive bet. Obvious?, setting myself up to get smoked?
Could mix in smaller bets on the river with the nuts as a cover for these situations.

[liquid]

As it played out I thought it was standard as well. (Foe did fold btw.) Afterwards though I felt a 4 was one of the few happy turn cards OOP. If the 8 were a pip or two lower then at least a turned K would be welcome. Meh.

[liquid]

[ QUOTE ]
This is true as long as you also always would bet a full here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point taken, though here I'm pretty confident I'm ahead and need to charge foe to draw. Foe passing is of course a-ok as well.

[RickyG]

I dont think my response is as clear cut as joe's. if you consider what he could be calling and not raising with on the flop, I wouldn't put him on a hand on which the 4 helped him.

This is one of those hands where knowing your opponent is huge. I doubt most people would slowplay a set here. While against some trickier opponents you might get slowplayed, I dont know if this is the kind of flop they would do it on with plenty of draws out there.
Therefore, my assumption is that the 4 helped you more than it helped him. With that in mind, I think I might check here.

Lets say on the flop he had some sort of monster draw:
8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] t[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

against your hand he was a 73% favorite, but after this turn, he is a 45% dog in the hand.

This improvement on your hand is true on all draws that do not include a 4, or middle or top set.

The key piece of information for me here would be how likely you are to put this particular foe on a slowplayed set. If he has a 4, there is a good chance that you have higher diamonds and some outs incase you made the wrong choice.

I like gambling, and this is a position I might choose to gamble. If he just calls your bet, and a safecard comes on the river (2c or a diamond), I will probably check call as more hands I can beat will bet out on the river, and no hands I can beat will call, but i might have also chosen to check-raise this turn.

NOTE: I just realized i never submitted this but rather left it in the preview pane. I'd still like some comments on this analysis.