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  #1  
Old 10-16-2005, 01:46 PM
Twitch1977 Twitch1977 is offline
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Default A Quick Probability Question

I am entering 10 draws, in each individual drawing I have a 5% chance of winning. How do I figure out my cumulative chance of winning over the 10 draws?

If anyone could help me out with this it'd be awesome [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks
T
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  #2  
Old 10-16-2005, 01:56 PM
SheetWise SheetWise is offline
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Default Re: A Quick Probability Question

Calculate your chance of losing, and subtract it from 1.
1-(.95^10)=.40126
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  #3  
Old 10-16-2005, 02:01 PM
Twitch1977 Twitch1977 is offline
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Default Re: A Quick Probability Question

Thanks much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

T
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  #4  
Old 10-16-2005, 02:01 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Default Re: A Quick Probability Question

Sheetwise gave you an excellent answer, but there are two important caveats. First, this assumes that the individual drawings are independent. Second, it is the chance that you win one or more times out of ten. The expected number of wins out of ten draws is 0.5 (this is true whether the draws are independent or not). The difference between this and 0.40126 is due the the possibility of winning two or more times.
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