$22 Q,Q Help?

[ilya]

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perhaps things have changed, but in my experience AJo, xxh, and 98 is definitely not the best case scenario at a 22.

btw I think this is an easy fold at 100 or 200.

As for the ROI part I think that merits an interesting discussion in itself (that I am in no way prepared or willing to get into), but I think in terms of hourly rate considerations it is more profitable to push here.

Of course, I have absolutely no math to back me up and am going on gut feeling, so I could be dead wrong and have something new to learn.

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It's certainly possible that one or two of your opponents have weaker hands than the ones I've given, but I stand by my best-case-scenario judgment because all three of the hands given are behind Hero. If I instead put my opponents on 67, 32o, and 32o, Hero's win% is lower than in the scenario I gave.

I don't think hourly rate considerations apply here. Getting more tournaments in isn't gonna help you much if you play in a way that makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to make money on any given tournament.

Whenever you're tempted to make an "hourly-rate" play, you have to step back and consider the maximum ROI you could hope to achieve if the situation came up in every single tournament you played and you always made the play.

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I think the prize structure makes this a CLEAR fold. Say you're up against AdJc, 9s8s, and AhTh....this is one of the best-case scenarios, I think. Yet even in this case, you're only 30% to take it down. Yes it is profitable. If your opponents turned up these hands and you were playing a winner-takes-all satellite, you would certainly call. However the 50/30/20 prize structure really changes things. 70% of the time you will be gone from the tournament. Having won this hand, you will need to make the money AT LEAST 73% of the time to break even (and that's if you always get 1st!). You can't possibly hope for more than a 10% ROI if this situation comes up every tournament and you call everytime.



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Great post. Makes sense to me now but never thought of it this way, Thanks.

[Olback]

Thanks for all the comments.

After much thought i folded and SB and BB had j,10 and MP had 6,7 for 2 pair and took down the whole thing.

I would have called 1 or 2 of the pushes so the SB and BB saved me from going broke.

[lacky]

hope your wrong, cause in a 22 I'd push without thinking twice. have no idea if it's right, but that's what i'd do

Steve