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#21
02-14-2005, 02:14 PM
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Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
[ QUOTE ]
Given that you had been pushing a lot of hands, I would think that either one would call you more than 12.75% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] No question. If you are pushing most of the time, he has to make a stand at some point. You can't just look at his $EV in isolation. His $EV is going down every round as you run over the table, and he may never again see a better $EV than calling here with hands worse than AK. 
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#22
02-14-2005, 02:19 PM
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Re: The Trash talk
[ QUOTE ]
And in my defense, I was not allin on every hand. Only 5 out of the previous 8, that's barely over half. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Only an idiot would call with AK against someone who had only gone all-in 5 out of the last 8 hands. What was he thinking? Certainly a trashing was in order! That's what the poker world needs...more low-class scum. Do you lose as gracefully as you win?
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#23
02-14-2005, 02:23 PM
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Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
Just about the folding ICM here.
Fold -> SB folds: .314 Fold -> SB pushes -> BB folds: .316 Fold -> SB pushes -> BB calls -> SB wins: .350 Fold -> SB pushes -> BB calls -> BB wins: .338 Fold -> SB completes -> BB pushes -> SB folds: .315 Those aren't all the possibilities obviously, but I think they are the most common, plus raises that aren't pushes will often end up all-in anyway. I don't really have any strong basis for weighting these outcomes, but here's a SWAG: .314 x .6 + .316 x .18 + .350 x .06 + .338 x .06 + .315 x .1 = .318 Not a huge difference, but using your calcs it then changes the percentage of times SB and BB need to fold from 74.5% to 77.6%.
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#24
02-14-2005, 02:28 PM
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Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
[ QUOTE ]
Just about the folding ICM here. Fold -> SB folds: .314 Fold -> SB pushes -> BB folds: .316 Fold -> SB pushes -> BB calls -> SB wins: .350 Fold -> SB pushes -> BB calls -> BB wins: .338 Fold -> SB completes -> BB pushes -> SB folds: .315 Those aren't all the possibilities obviously, but I think they are the most common, plus raises that aren't pushes will often end up all-in anyway. I don't really have any strong basis for weighting these outcomes, but here's a SWAG: .314 x .6 + .316 x .18 + .350 x .06 + .338 x .06 + .315 x .1 = .318 Not a huge difference, but using your calcs it then changes the percentage of times SB and BB need to fold from 74.5% to 77.6%. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't consider SB and BB calling just to simplify my calculations. But you're certainly right--considering that they both might call make this play even more dicey.
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#25
02-14-2005, 02:44 PM
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Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't consider SB and BB calling just to simplify my calculations. But you're certainly right--considering that they both might call make this play even more dicey. [/ QUOTE ] Right, not faulting you, these things are incredibly complicated if you try and look at all possible outcomes. In this case I wasn't looking at what happens if they both call your push, but what happens after you fold. The actions of SB and BB after your fold will affect your equity. The possibility of them both calling is yet another complication. I'm not sure how that will affect your equity. It all but guarantees you ITM, but it also makes you very likely to be short stack ITM.
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#27
02-14-2005, 02:47 PM
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Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I definately like the aggressive play on the bubble. However, I'd have a hard time passing up on AK here if I were the BB. There are only a few hands I call with here and I think AK is one of them. [/ QUOTE ] I would call in a millisecond against an aggressive raiser. [/ QUOTE ] I would have pushed PF BUT, he pushed on the flop. Depending on all other factors, I may fold.
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#28
02-14-2005, 02:49 PM
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Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I didn't consider SB and BB calling just to simplify my calculations. But you're certainly right--considering that they both might call make this play even more dicey. [/ QUOTE ] Right, not faulting you, these things are incredibly complicated if you try and look at all possible outcomes. In this case I wasn't looking at what happens if they both call your push, but what happens after you fold. The actions of SB and BB after your fold will affect your equity. The possibility of them both calling is yet another complication. I'm not sure how that will affect your equity. It all but guarantees you ITM, but it also makes you very likely to be short stack ITM. [/ QUOTE ] Sorry, I didn't read your post carefully enough. Very interesting. I'll have to remember that the next time I attempt these kinds of calculations.
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#29
02-14-2005, 02:59 PM
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Re: The Trash talk
Good point...I guess you just need to be quiet and let people do what they need to do.
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#30
02-14-2005, 03:13 PM
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Re: The Trash talk
I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic.
That is not what I meant. Calling Scuba out for his rude chat was not rude in itself and I'm not saying it had to be done as if one were in a Merchant Ivory movie, but it seems to me that calling him a low-class scum was about as rude as he was in his chat. That said, no fuhkin' big deal to me if a bunch of anonymous cocksuckers on the internet behave like ass-faces.
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