to fold or not to fold? Or what?

[DeeJ]

Don't know either of villains, CO appears straightforward / reasonable, SB is rather loose but also plays aggressively, but can fold, post-flop. A bit LAGgy.

Anyhows, I'd been sitting there for 4 orbits getting no cards at all - Flops Seen 8%, Pots Won 0% - when I then lost trips to a straight, split a straight when we both had the nuts and lost 2 pair to another straight. So I was pretty sad.

When this hand arrives. Yet another dangerous board, yet another opportunity to spew chips. What should Hero do? (apart from maybe raise preflop?)

Paradise Poker 8/16 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font> ...

Hero ... ?

[Rhone]

If SB can fold post flop, but instead limp re-re-raises here, it sure looks like you can put him on the flush. If my math is right you just about have the odds to call looking to fill up on the river, though you probably won't milk them for too much if the board double pairs. Still, I vote call.

[thorin]

I dont see any reason to play TPTK in an unraised pot and a board that dangerous, since you in it i'd fold or raise, not call. Raise seems kind of stupid also, with that many players in it and so many raises.

[DeeJ]

Well, the chance of anyone holding exactly 2 clubs is less than 6%. So the chance any of 4 the players holding 2 clubs at the flop is not a long way from 25%. And since nobody seems to have 99 or better with no preflop raises, I reckon I'm the best hand here far more often than I'm not.

But sure, I am vulnerable, so I'm raising to get rid of weaker draws although anyone with a club isn't going anywhere yes. But the club is only coming 1/3 of the time.

EDIT I am talking about the flop, you are talking about the turn? Same point applies, except my real question is the poll question (raise call or fold). If you're raising, it might blow out CO. If you're folding, you might lose the boat-fill-up possibility. If you're calling, you might be -EV to someone who already has a boat or nut flush... that's the nub of it.

[DeeJ]

At the table I paused and paused. Eventually I called.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

River: (14.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 17.50 BB

Results below:
SB has 3h 3s (full house, eights full of threes).
Hero has Ah 8h (four of a kind, eights).
CO has Ac 4c (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins 17.50 BB.


All turned out ok in the end [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

At the turn I thought that SB had to have at least the nut flush, and CO at least a flush, or maybe aces or the other 8. Which kinda threw me because I guess the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] was a likely dead card, and possibly my 8. So my outs could be as few as 2 or 3. As it was I had 6 outs (666,AA,8) or 7 if you count the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] which was actually dead. I didn't have the odds to call and even with the implied odds of the extra river bets if I hit, it's marginal.

And no, I didn't go for the river check-raise. The last time I hit big on the river with a nut flush it got checked around 5 players [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]