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  #1  
Old 01-14-2005, 05:52 AM
housenuts housenuts is offline
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Default wrong spot to gamble??

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter

BB (t3385)
UTG (t810)
UTG+1 (t1850)
MP1 (t1305)
MP2 (t1675)
CO (t1080)
Hero (t2155)
SB (t965)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t140</font>, SB folds, BB calls t110, CO calls t110.

<font color="green">I usually will not raise this preflop but the table was fairly tight and I thought I'd be able to get away from the hand if heat came. </font>

Flop: (t435) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets t940 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t940, BB folds.

<font color="green"> I don't have CO on QQ, KK, or AA, or a set. Can I call this in this situation? It would be very nice to get his chips but if he beats me I go from penthouse to outhouse.</font>

Turn: (t2315) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2315) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2315



Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
CO has 7h Ah (flush, ace high).
Hero has Jd As (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: CO wins t2315. </font>

<font color="green">I showed the results because I don't really care. The question is more about this type of situation. How much of a favourite do you think you'd have to be to call in this situation? If I knew he was on that flush draw I was a 62/38 favourite. I would think that should warrant a call but I'm not sure. If I win I have over 3,000 but if I lose I have about 1,000. I think the difference between 1,000 and 2,000 is alot bigger than the difference between 2,000 and 3,000. Do you agree? Is it worth the risk? </font>
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  #2  
Old 01-14-2005, 05:57 AM
DeezNutz3 DeezNutz3 is offline
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Default Re: wrong spot to gamble??

It looks like you put him on all hands you can beat. I could still see the CO having 22 or 55 because of the PF limp. I think he played it odd if he had a set, but being early in the tournament I think this is an easy fold at a "tight table". The flush draw is the most obvious which it turned out to be. I just don't like the gamble with not a very large pot this early.
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  #3  
Old 01-14-2005, 06:20 AM
Dawdy Dawdy is offline
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Default Re: wrong spot to gamble??

Personally I think you played this hand correctly.
You have AJo, not a great hand but deff worth the preflop raise. Getting called in 2 spots is fine too.
You get one of your dream flops.
I mean lets face it what could you see with AJ thats better, realistically. You arent gonna get your run or full house very often and anything which involves the Ace could mean you have kicker trouble so pairing your 'weak' card is purrrrfect and having this 'weak' pair being top pair and having the best overcard your in heaven.
Now whats he/they likely to have with a J52 flop? Due to your raise preflop we can discount 2 pair as all these cards are too far apart. Trips? Unlikely to be trip jacks and I dont see trips behind every bush so I wouldnt put them on 5's or 2's either, combined with the fact few players would call a preflop raise with a pair of 5's or 2's.
BB checking is the most dangerous part of this hand imo. Hes the only one who can bust you out. CO all in, as it turns out is a pure bluff (at the time). Your calling a bluff when you are so far ahead is to your credit. BB folds, phewwww.
Your unlucky he got runner runner. You still have 1k left and its early.
You have to take advantage of these early oppertunities or you will not make the money.

Dawdy
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  #4  
Old 01-14-2005, 06:40 AM
housenuts housenuts is offline
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Default Re: wrong spot to gamble??

he didn't get runner-runner. he went all-in on a semi-bluff and caught his flush on the turn.

i'm asking even if i know his holding thus making me a 60/40 favourite is it worth calling at this point in the tourney? obviously later in the tourney i would love this sort of advantage but i think this early it may not be worth taking.
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  #5  
Old 01-14-2005, 08:13 AM
thorin thorin is offline
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Default Re: wrong spot to gamble??

It's hard for me to make up my mind. Off course it's hard to know what i would put him on since i have the HH now, but i think i've had him on KJ, QQ or a pocket pair like 99-66. I would certainly not put him on a flushdraw.

The reason for low pocket pair and KJ is that it feels like he has decided preflop to move all-in if a Ace, King or nothing other tricky falls, but off course that's not the case. QQ is not that probable, since he'd probably re-raise you.

If he'd flopped a set, hed probably just check or make a smaller bet.

But if you sincerely put him on a flushdraw (im not saying your lyin', but sometimes it's easy to think you put them on their hand after you've seen it, i've done so many times) you did the right move.
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  #6  
Old 01-14-2005, 08:18 AM
Stoneii Stoneii is offline
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Default Re: wrong spot to gamble??

If my aim is to stack build to win it then I'm taking these odds, if my aim is to hang tough to try limp into money then maybe a pass.

stoneii
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  #7  
Old 01-14-2005, 10:18 AM
Sam T. Sam T. is offline
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Location: St Louis, MO
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Default Re: wrong spot to gamble??

From a maths point of view this is a no-brainer. You have to call t940 in a pot worth t1375, so your're getting 1.4 to 1 on your call. He, on the other hand is a 2:1 dog to hit his flush. You got your money in as a favorite and lost.

On the other hand, I hate calling other players all-in bets, and I loathe putting all my chips behind top pair this early in a tournament. 55 or 22, while unlikely, do not seem out of the question if he is afraid of the flush, rather than drawing to it. (In the early stages when fish are abundant, and there are a number of people in the pot, I will sometimes overbet a flopped set in hope that someone else has caught a piece and will look me up.)

If I've already doubled up, I might lay this down. But depending on my mood I might also call. No wrong answer, I don't think.
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  #8  
Old 01-14-2005, 10:26 AM
jojobinks jojobinks is offline
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Default Re: wrong spot to gamble??

i think harrington says easy call, encouraging you to look at it from a pot odds/likely hands held position. he would say (i'm guessing, 3/4 of the way through the book) that elimination isn't the issue. in a mtt, you need to accumulate, and this is a favorable position.

cloutier says fold. you have to protect your stack.

i'd call with the read you had.
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  #9  
Old 01-14-2005, 05:52 PM
housenuts housenuts is offline
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Default Re: wrong spot to gamble??

i would say with my read i had there was only about a 10% chance he had a better hand than me at that point in time.

i'm all about making +EV calls, but i don't know if this situation really helps me. some players can play a big stack really effectively (not that 3,000 is a really big stack) but I don't think I can use those chips as well as others can.

i remember reading gigabet's post a while ago about making a call with KJ I believe. half of the reasoning was because if he got those extra chips, he'd be able to use them to gain more by pushing the table around. my skills don't afford me that luxury. i'm still not sure what i should have done in this situation.
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