Bottom set - PFR wakes back up on the turn...

CMonkey · #1 03-21-2005, 06:31 PM

Can you really do anything else except check-call here? Villian could have a bigger set but he could also have two pair. You certainly can't fold for a single bet here getting 15.75:1 on calling down. Nor do you have enough information to definitively put your opponent on two pair so value betting is pretty much out.

ErrantNight · #2 03-21-2005, 06:33 PM

yeah, you can bet and call a raise.

CMonkey · #3 03-21-2005, 07:14 PM

With an apparent blank falling on the river, betting out should signal Villian to watch out if he only holds two pair (we called his turn cap and kept right on going, Villian is not a known idiot). So a good portion of the time he'll only call your river bet when holding two pair while he'll raise if he has a set. If he only has two pair, you win one, but if he has trips you lose two. Our set needs to be good somewhere in the neighborhood of 66% of the time; I doubt this is the case here.

ErrantNight · #4 03-21-2005, 08:36 PM

i didn't say you SHOULD... it's just the only other line given that check/folding and betting/3-betting are both way out.

CallMeIshmael · #5 03-21-2005, 08:39 PM

I'm still not convinced that betting is better than check folding. Though I do feel they are both wrong.

ErrantNight · #6 03-21-2005, 08:58 PM

this is a huge pot. check/folding would be much, much worse than betting/calling a raise.

CallMeIshmael · #7 03-22-2005, 12:19 AM

I now retract my statement that in this situation betting and calling may be worse than check/folding.

After having thought about it, I realize (but did not intuitively know) that as the probability of your opponent betting when checked to in a HU sitution approaches 1, this condition set approcaches impossible:

1. Checking and calling is +EV
2. Both betting/calling and check/folding are -EV
3. Betting/calling is worse than check/folding

I would assume that the probability of this opponent betting when checked to is very close to 1, and thus that condition set is almost certainly not possible.

I would say betting and calling is a mistake on the order of roughly 0.75BB.

While checking on folding is a mistake on the order of, perhaps, around 1.5BB.

Just to save a little face: I never advocated anything other than check calling. And both are, IMO, very large mistakes.