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#1
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Interesting $109 Bubble Situation
Stars $105+$9 Turbo. I'm posting this from memory, stacks are approximate, but close. It had been a prolonged bubble, and I had worked my way up from an anemic stack to put myself in pretty decent shape. Since then I'd more or less treaded water, being careful of the stacks that were likely to call, but trying to push every 4th or 5th hand to hold serve.
Blinds 300-600 w/50 ante UTG - 3000 Button - 6500 SB - 800 (500 after posting) BB (UMTerp) - 3200 (2600 after posting) Button is a regular at this level, and a very good SNG player. He's well aware that even if the SB triples up this hand, he will probably win back everything he lost and then some in the next few hands by wielding his stack. He knows I'm a good player too. SB was unknown, but seemed solid enough. UTG folds, Button pushes, SB calls, I have 88. Call or Fold? |
#2
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Re: Interesting $109 Bubble Situation
I call. It has to go in order of hand rank "SB/Button/You" for you to be busted out of the money. Button is probably pushing almost any two here. Easy call for me.
Now someone can come along and prove me wrong. |
#3
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Re: Interesting $109 Bubble Situation
Granted the button is probably pushing with any 2 here and the SB is basically pot committed preflop but I just can't bring myself to make this call.
If the SB wasn't AI in front of you or at 1.5xBB I would call this instantly. Also if the blinds were at 400/800 instead of 300/600 or hero didnt have 4.25xBB after posting I would be more inclined to call. Anybody wanna do an ICM calcultion on this mofo? |
#4
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Re: Interesting $109 Bubble Situation
[ QUOTE ]
If the SB wasn't AI in front of you or at 1.5xBB I would call this instantly. Also if the blinds were at 400/800 instead of 300/600 or hero didnt have 4.25xBB after posting I would be more inclined to call. Anybody wanna do an ICM calcultion on this mofo? [/ QUOTE ] 3-way ICMs are a lot of work. FWIW, I'm more likely to call if the SB is all-in than if he isn't. I'm almost positive ICM numbers would agree with that one. |
#5
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Re: Interesting $109 Bubble Situation
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I'm more likely to call if the SB is all-in than if he isn't. [/ QUOTE ] This is correct. |
#6
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Re: Interesting $109 Bubble Situation
Well I am glad to know I found another leak in my play [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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#7
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Re: Interesting $109 Bubble Situation
I call this, and I think you have to look at the possible stack sizes next hand just as much as the stack sizes this hand. Whether or not the button is pushing any two, there's still a good chance he'll lose to the SB heads up.
Stack sizes supposing sb takes down the pot (and you fold pre): ~3000 ~5700 ~2400 ~2600 (hero) Since you're posting the sb next hand, you run the risk of being the short stack at the table by folding this hand. Also, your table image is hurt a bit with each fold in the BB. I think the risk of sb tripling up is much worse than the risk of losing to BOTH the sb AND the button with the sb beating the button. |
#8
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Re: Interesting $109 Bubble Situation
[ QUOTE ]
Granted the button is probably pushing with any 2 here and the SB is basically pot committed preflop but I just can't bring myself to make this call. If the SB wasn't AI in front of you or at 1.5xBB I would call this instantly. Also if the blinds were at 400/800 instead of 300/600 or hero didnt have 4.25xBB after posting I would be more inclined to call. Anybody wanna do an ICM calcultion on this mofo? [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm, I think you have this backwards. |
#9
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Re: Interesting $109 Bubble Situation
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Granted the button is probably pushing with any 2 here and the SB is basically pot committed preflop but I just can't bring myself to make this call. If the SB wasn't AI in front of you or at 1.5xBB I would call this instantly. Also if the blinds were at 400/800 instead of 300/600 or hero didnt have 4.25xBB after posting I would be more inclined to call. Anybody wanna do an ICM calcultion on this mofo? [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm, I think you have this backwards. [/ QUOTE ] He does |
#10
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Re: Interesting $109 Bubble Situation
call and hope you don't lose to both of them
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