drawing dead?

[34TheTruth34]

party 30/60

EP limps in, I limp in MP QJs, one player limps behind me, <font color="blue">button </font> raises ( <font color="blue"> 1800 hands, 22.5 VPIP, 10.5 PFR, 38 WSD, 1.6 AF </font> ), <font color="red"> SB </font> three-bets ( <font color="red"> 540 hands, 23 VPIP, 19 PFR, 47 WSD, 2.6 AF </font> ), BB folds, EP calls, I call, button calls. 4 players, 7 BBs.

Flop K-9-3 rainbow, with the 9 of my suit.

SB bets, EP calls, I call, button raises, SB three-bets, EP folds, I groan and call (like?), button caps, we call. 3 players, 13.5 BBs.

Turn 3, giving me a four-flush and pairing the board. SB bets, I call, button raises, SB three-bets...now what?

[Nigel]

I check out at this point.

[JimmyV]

I fold on the flop instead of calling two cold.

The turn is probably not a huge mistake either way -- sometimes you're drawing dead, sometimes you rake a ginormous pot.

But I think the flop was a clear mistake.

[Stellastarr]

I hate what happend on the flop. I probably would have folded when it was 2 more back to me on the flop.

[MrStretchie]

I would fold at this point.
I wonder why everybody hates the flop call though. When it comes back around to you (unless my quick arithmetic was wrong), you're getting 11:1 just in the pot. If it gets capped (which is likely), you're getting 8:1 (assuming SB calls the cap which he obviously would).
If it gets capped, you can most likely extract another 6BB, possibly a lot more. So that's at least 12:1 with implied odds.
Even just considering the gutshot that seems good. True you would be exposed to a redraw, as it seems likely someone has a set. On the other hand, you have a backdoor flush draw as well, and the implied odds could be much higher. (A lot of players wouldn't even notice that a ten makes a straight..)

Oh, and if the board pairs on the turn, you can safely fold. So fold.

[MrStretchie]

So now..
What if the turn had been the rainbow 9?

SB bets
Hero - call or raise?

Say the turn goes:
SB bets, hero calls, BTN raises, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, BTN caps, SB calls.

River's another 9.
SB bets, hero calls, BTN raises, SB 3-bets
Your hand's almost certainly toast.. is it worth 3 more BB in this now astronomical pot?

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]
But I think the flop was a clear mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]
I strongly disagree. You have 4 outs to the pure nuts and given the action so far the pot will nearly always be well over 10BB, especially if a T turns. Folding would be a clear mistake.

[34TheTruth34]

I think it's interesting that people didn't like the call on the flop. To me, it seems automatic with 4 outs to the nuts, a backdoor flush draw, and possible runner-runner two pair or trips being good.

I also find it interesting that nobody mentioned the SB's aggressiveness. It seems possible to me that he could be overplaying his hand here.

So, anyway, on the turn I folded. I really felt I might have been drawing dead, as best case scenario is one of them has AK and the other AA, or one KQ and the other AK. But the three bet on the turn led me to believe the SB may have had kings full or nines full. Plus, it could still be capped. So I folded instead of calling the two more cold (potentially 3 bets total).

When the button just called the third bet after I folded, I got that sick feeling. Results-wise, this turned out to be a horrible fold, as the button had KQ and the small blind AK.

Luckily for my sanity, I would have missed on the river anyway, but my fold theoretically cost me $217.80. Not good. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]