Post Flop - river call?

[Scuba Chuck]

Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: redhotaces ( $540 )
Seat 2: whurleyd1200 ( $1120 )
Seat 3: SCUBA CHUCK( $775 )
Seat 4: letsgobrowns ( $1985 )
Seat 6: Kabaci ( $390 )
Seat 7: newlegends1 ( $355 )
Seat 8: packers0914 ( $725 )
Seat 9: allinfish ( $1640 )
Seat 10: Stjerna21 ( $470 )
Trny:14600147 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SCUBA CHUCK[ Kd Jd ]
letsgobrowns folds.
Kabaci folds.
newlegends1 calls [30].
packers0914 folds.
allinfish folds.
Stjerna21 folds.
redhotaces folds.
whurleyd1200 folds.
SCUBA CHUCKchecks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Tc, 5s, As ]
SCUBA CHUCKchecks.
newlegends1 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ]
SCUBA CHUCKchecks.
newlegends1 checks.
** Dealing River ** [ Ac ]
SCUBA CHUCKchecks.
newlegends1 bets [125].
SCUBA CHUCK......


<font color="blue"> I think this is a good situation to discuss. What range of hands do you put villain on? (Party Poker $33)

What's your reason for folding? What's your reason for calling? </font>

[bluefeet]

i'd pay him. he'd be betting something on that [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] flop with an Ace. HU with a blind check'r, there isn't a lot of hope for fancy play, trying to induce a bet from you.

the only risk IMO is a JJ,QQ,KKK...limping in EP, desperately hoping for a raiser. but those times are far/few between.

his bet on the river is almost too large to get called. if he held what he thought was the winning hand, something closer to t75 might seem more likely.

call.

[jd2b2006]

This is extremely read dependent. How did villain go from 1000 to 355? Barring no reads, villain could have just about any two here, but most likely has a decent hand since they limped with 13 BB's from EP. I understand the possibility of calling since you have the best hand if villain is overbetting a missed flush draw or a smaller pocket pair then 10's. However if I wanted this pot, I would have bet the river. I think the overbet makes this a tough decision, and would lean towards folding unless villain donked away his chips by playing poorly postflop. Even so, I do not think the risk is worth the reward.

[Scuba Chuck]

jd2b2006,

I don't think folding is bad here. But try and go through a thought process. What range of hands would you put villain on? Then think about how villain would play this hand based on each of those hands.

Scuba

[Jay36489]

I would let it go. I see too many donks that will slowplay a huge hand to the river and win only a tiny pot. The pot just isn't big enough to fight over. If you want us to try and put him on a range, a read would help, but I see him playing a weak ace this way, and maybe trying to get tricky with a ten.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands would you put villain on? Then think about how villain would play this hand based on each of those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

...the one troubling thing, is what hand would NOT bet on the flop or turn? even just to pick up the blinds? certainly any bet would likely get a fold HH vs. the BB. what hand would give BB multiple opportunities to make a move on the pot?

something nut'ish?

[jd2b2006]

[ QUOTE ]
jd2b2006,

I don't think folding is bad here. But try and go through a thought process. What range of hands would you put villain on? Then think about how villain would play this hand based on each of those hands.

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba,

As I said before, with the checks on the flop and turn, villain could have any two cards. Here are some likely hands:

1) any ace: might be slowplaying since he is small stacked; will bet the river no matter what

2) any ten: no reason to bet the turn after hitting trips; will bet river since he most likely has best hand

3) pocket pair between 10s-Ks: likley to bet flop or turn; this hand is likely not to be what villain is holding

4) pocket pair less than 10s: no reason to bet until river

5) K-x: will check all the way through and bet river to bluff since you have shown no strength

6) spade flush draw: should bet at least the turn, if not flop; since this did not happen, not a likely holding

I understand you see the overbet and think bluff, but you need to correct here around 60% for the call to be +EV. Basically, you can only beat a bluff, or split the pot if villain has a K. I personally like to overbet in a situation like this where it looks like a bluff when I have a strong hand, to induce a K-x to call. I also understand that since villain has not bet, it appears they do not have a strong hand. I still stand by my line of betting the river if I want this pot, and folding to an overbet since we have no information. If villain got to be a short stack by donking away his chips, it would strongly influence my decision on calling.

[gumpzilla]

Fold.

I think it's pretty rare that you'll call and win the pot outright. You can call and split pretty frequently with another K. Sometimes you'll call and lose. So essentially, you stand to win 37.5 chips when you "win", and lose 125 more when you lose. I don't really like these odds.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold.

I think it's pretty rare that you'll call and win the pot outright. You can call and split pretty frequently with another K. Sometimes you'll call and lose. So essentially, you stand to win 37.5 chips when you "win", and lose 125 more when you lose. I don't really like these odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gump, I like your analysis. But you are not considering the "win" into your results. Very skewed, IMO.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]


Gump, I like your analysis. But you are not considering the "win" into your results. Very skewed, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, sure, I'm not putting in any exact probabilities. What I'm saying is that I think most of the time you're up against at least another K. In my opinion, it is quite unlikely that you'll win outright, so yes, I'm discounting this. If we now look at a case where you're going to splitting or losing - which I admit is oversimplified - you need to be confident that you'll split somewhere between 75-80% of the time to make calling correct, and even then it's quite marginal. The fact that you can win means this needs to be adjusted downward. Anyway, it's not ever going to be a particularly great spot, and so I don't mind passing on this one and figure that what I'm foregoing if I gauged it wrong is a theoretical +10 chips or so.