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#1
07-06-2004, 10:28 AM
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based on top, whos making the mistake here?
suppose youre playing he, you flop a set, you are heads up with a player who flopped a gut shot straight. and suppose there is more than enough money in the pot for the gut shot to call. if you both flip over your cards , would it be wrong to bet the set? would it be wrong to call the bet from the set?
i guess it comes down to whether the straight would win if made. so lets say its after the turn and the same situation is intact, you have a set against a gut shot draw. accorrding to the theory, whos wrong the bettor or the caller? or both? i dont think the caller could be wrong, so it must be the bettor is wrong? but wouldnt it be wrong to give a free shot at the pot? its early, maybe im not thinking too good 
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#2
07-06-2004, 11:06 AM
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Re: based on top, whos making the mistake here?
Neither player is wrong. You bet your set because it is the best hand and you are making money off what is going into the pot on that round. You call with the gutshot because your are making money based on what's already in the pot.
Not betting the set would be terrible, as you have given your opponent infinite odds rather than, say, 13-1, to draw freely against you in a big pot. Not calling with the gutshot in this situation would be terrible, as you're getting 13-1 on an 11-1 shot. -Michael
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#3
07-06-2004, 11:30 AM
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Re: based on top, whos making the mistake here?
Since the person with the set has 7 outs on the flop and
10 outs on the turn to improve to a full house or quads. What pot odds does the gutshot draw need to make it a profitable play. I guessing 11-1 would not be good enough since the set could improve to a better hand on the river if you the gutshot hits on the turn.
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#5
07-06-2004, 03:43 PM
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Re: based on top, whos making the mistake here?
Without having read the other posts, what you have is a +EV situation for both you and your opponent. Poker is of course a zero sum game (negative sum taking into consideration rake), so how can this be? Simple: the other people who put money into this pot are paying you both off. Even though only one of you will win the pot, you are both benefitting from the other players. After they have folded, you now have a positive sum game between two people.
The Fundamental Theorum of Poker is a lot like the thoeretical models of policy position of candidates we have in political science -- it gets kind of weird when you add more than one person.
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#6
07-06-2004, 03:50 PM
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oops
when you wrote "suppose you are playing he" -- i thought you meant hold em. i think you meant heads up instead. my bad.
the drawing player made the mistake earlier according to the FTOP, before turning the cards over. After that his play is correct. The same general principle applies though. Just instead of other players paying of players A and B, player A at time t is paying off player B and player A at time t+1. Hope that makes sense. Again, sorry for the confusion [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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