Low Ceiling vs High Ceiling-SNG strategy(long)

[lastchance]

I don't see how you can "defend against variance." It happens. All you can do is maximize your EV. If your point is that a lack of postflop skills is a leak in SNG's, I think we can all agree with that.

You made a good point very oddly however. A simple "not being able to play postflop costs you money L1-L3" and "you need to learn not to be a weak-tight pansy" should have sufficed. I know personally, playing postflop and L1-L3 play is exactly what I need to learn next.

[pergesu]

I'm clearly missing something here.

In my style of play, which is basically being as smart as a goldfish and pushing 80% of hands when blinds are big, I do pick up pots. The pot is just comprised of the blinds because there has been no action yet. The vast majority of the time I don't want to go to showdown.

I don't really see your distinction between "picking up BLINDS" and "picking up POTS".

[Nick M]

yeah totally agree here...speaking of big stacks nice avatar.

[Nick M]

pots happen post flop and they are larger than just the blinds. This is all I mean. But yes playing like a "smart goldfish" is the right play when the blinds are high, given your stack size that is.

[Nick M]

yeah I answered another question about the defending variance thing. I am going to copy it in here too. Thanks for the reply.




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You say that your strategy of correct postflop play "can defend against variance", but you provide nothing to substantiate that claim.


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In my post I write...


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You don't just get to play your cards, you can play your opponents cards and take EV that does not belong to you. High Ceiling play has range. It doesn't just steal blinds it steals POTS. Low Ceiling takes EV that does not belong to you sure, the blinds. But High Ceiling is involved in the action and can take advantage of the action.


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I probably should have been more specific. What I say here is variance is determined comepletely and totally by losing hands. If you never lose a hand there will be no variance. That means that if you can take pots that you would otherwise lose if you should down, you're defending against variance. I think LC preflop defends against variance because you steal blinds. Blinds that you can win without having the best hand. But like I said in my post, HC play takes not just blinds, when you switch to LC, but it takes POTS.

[pergesu]

Alright, so what's the point of it all? Taking down the pot preflop vs taking it down postflop doesn't much matter to me - I'd especially not like to see a flop with I've got my 96o, opponent has QJs, and I could really use the chips.

Can't say I've seen threads where they're like, "Okay it's level 2 and everyone folded to me, what should I do?" and everyone says to push. Yeah, having postflop skills will dramatically increase your profits, cause you can make some money in the early levels as well. Not sure that it's like revolutionary...

As for the "hahaha you guys have no idea what you're talking about" because we don't know if some guy just lost a big pot, eastbay already explained how it all works.

I don't mean to rag on you, it just seems that your clarifications all add up to "Learn to play postflop so you can survive the early rounds." *twirls finger*

[lastchance]

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I don't mean to rag on you, it just seems that your clarifications all add up to "Learn to play postflop so you can survive the early rounds." *twirls finger*

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It's more like "learn to play postflop so you can win chips in the early rounds."

[Nick M]

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No way to get around variance no matter how you play. Some forms have lesser varians, other more variance.

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in my post I actually said this.

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This is where you can DEFEND against variance.

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i also replied to another question about this saying

In my post I write...


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You don't just get to play your cards, you can play your opponents cards and take EV that does not belong to you. High Ceiling play has range. It doesn't just steal blinds it steals POTS. Low Ceiling takes EV that does not belong to you sure, the blinds. But High Ceiling is involved in the action and can take advantage of the action.


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I probably should have been more specific. What I say here is variance is determined comepletely and totally by losing hands. If you never lose a hand there will be no variance. That means that if you can take pots that you would otherwise lose if you should down, you're defending against variance. I think LC preflop defends against variance because you steal blinds. Blinds that you can win without having the best hand. But like I said in my post, HC play takes not just blinds, when you switch to LC, but it takes POTS.


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This makes no sense to me. At any given situation in any form of poker, there's one move that has the most EV. It's the move that make you the most money in this and every future hand. How can you get more EV than max EV?


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yes there is one move that makes you the most EV possible. I agree. I am just saying a lot of those don't happen pre flop


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Don't get this either. It's +EV to steal blinds. I know that and therefor the EV belongs to me.


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What I mean by EV that doesn't belong to me is EV won with the worst hand. Obvioulsy $EV can never be won by you with the worst hand.


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And ROI is never unlimited in any game. It is impossible. Unlimited ROI would mean you're getting infinite odds (obviously a good bet)


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in my post I write this.

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But what is the defense for a non set strategy???? High Ceiling play has no set defense. This is why ROI is unlimited...well in a sense. You could win every single SNG you play, that's the limit ahhaaha. But you understand.

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ROI is unlimited up to the point you are winning every single SNG. This is what I mean by unlimited.


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A move you make that is against all books, but that you make based on instinct and feeling, can still be mathematically proven to be the correct move.

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this is completely untrue. A play that makes your opponent THINK he has the worst hand, has absolutely nothing to do with Math.

[lastchance]

You can't win every single SNG, even if you're Phil Ivey with the game theoretic knowledge that Chris Ferguson/David Sklansky has.

Like I said, if your opponents play optimally, your ROI over an infinite period of time is not going to be higher than 0%. It is impossible.

[Nick M]

In my post I say this

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High Ceiling is poker played on both the preflop level and the post flop level.

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this implies that HC can play LC but not the other way around. A square is a rectangle but a rectangle is not a square. I want to play like a rectangle. hahaha