Hey, I found a leak! Now what?

Saddlepoint · #1 08-08-2005, 08:17 AM

I sincerely feel as though my nlhe play has improved greatly in this past month (note that my conclusion is not necessarily based in my results over that period). I've kind of settled into a groove, and feel like I'm probably a winning player at my level. Yes, I've moved up from a 3 to a 4 on the scale to 1000 of poker skill, and very excited. Lesser men might be satisfied; I'm shooting for 5.

I was looking through my PokerTracker statistics yesterday, where I have ~15,000 hands at my current level. Though wary of drawing conclusions from the overall statistics, I was rereading over some specific hands that resulted in big pots, trying to see if I could find any patterns.

I think I've found a leak in my game - a situation where my current approach is losing me money. A lot of money, I think. Hard to say for sure. The situation concerns "monster draws", by which I mean draws that are a favorite on the flop against top-pair or an overpair.

I strive to be an aggressive player, and I semibluff a lot. In both raised and unraised pots, I will often make big stabs at the pot on the flop with a flush draw or open-ended straight draw. Against the right opponent, I will raise or check/raise with these same hands. I plan to fold if I encounter a lot of resistance (unless I'm getting pot odds), and, since I'm usually playing hands like these in position, I get checked to a lot on the turn when I miss and will generally take the free card.

So, fine (right?). Here's the thing. If instead of just a flush draw, I flop a straight flush draw, or a flush draw with a pair, I know that I am a small pre-turn favorite against a lot of hands that think they're in great shape. And I fire with them a lot. And I keep firing the turn if I miss, or worse, I call. Sometimes I'll flop one draw, "improve" to a multiway draw on the turn and get carried away. Here are some examples of monster draws I've misplayed.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) converter

Hero ($100.90)
Button ($105.55)
SB ($84.35)
BB ($110.70)
UTG ($84.40)
UTG+1 ($99.75)
MP1 ($76.30)
MP2 ($97.50)
MP3 ($20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) checks, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, MP3 (poster) checks, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($6.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets $5, Hero calls $5, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($16.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $15, MP3 calls $14 (All-In).

River: ($45.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $45.50

Results in white below: 
MP3 has Qh Th (two pair, queens and tens).
Hero has Jc Ac (one pair, twos).
Outcome: MP3 wins $44.50. Hero wins $1. 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) converter

BB ($91.40)
UTG ($60.70)
UTG+1 ($104)
MP1 ($32.50)
Hero ($164.10)
CO ($27.30)
Button ($42.75)
SB ($93.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.5, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($8.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $8, Button calls $8.

Turn: ($24.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $13, Hero raises to $152.6, Button calls $18.25 (All-In).

River: ($208.35) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $208.35

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ac Tc (one pair, sevens).
Button has Qd Ah (two pair, queens and sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins $121.35. Button wins $87. 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($115.8)
MP1 ($136.55)
MP2 ($56.95)
CO ($82.6)
Button ($88.6)
SB ($107.4)
BB ($122.3)
Hero ($100)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
Hero calls $1, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1, 2 folds, Button calls $1, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: ($4.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button bets $2, BB folds, Hero raises to $8, MP1 calls $8, Button calls $6.

Turn: ($28.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $91 (All-In), MP1 calls $91, Button folds.

River: ($210.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $210.50

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ts 9s (one pair, nines).
MP1 has Kh Jc (two pair, kings and jacks).
Outcome: MP1 wins $210.50. 

Note for that last one that I'm not playing suited connectors like that from UTG anymore. Anyway, is the solution a pre-flop thing? To try and be in position more often with speculative hands? Should I try to get it all-in on the flop when out of position with these types of draws? Or is this all just a question of donkish turn play?

I'm sure I have hundreds of leaks just like this one, but this one jumped out at me. Any criticism, abuse, comments, questions, thoughts absolutely welcome.

#2 08-08-2005, 08:38 AM

I think the thing about this play (semibluff with huge draw) is to do it selectively. In hand one and two, you put a guy all in who has little money left. When they're getting 2:1 on their money and have a pretty solid hand, it's tough to fold. You can't bluff someone off their last few dollars and your implied odds aren't good there. So in the first two, I think it was a bad idea to pull this b/c they were too short stacked to fold anything that might even be close to the best hand.

In the last hand, you pulled this in a multiway pot. What was worse is that both of the other players were actually showing quite a bit of strength by calling your fairly big raise on the flop. I don't like the idea of a semibluff into two opponents showing strength.

So I don't think this semibluff all in with a monster draw is necessarily bad, but all three times you did on the turn when you weren't even a favorite anymore. And all three times, you did it in what seems like situations that would not lend themselves well to bluffing. I like the play better on the flop, when you're actually a favorite, and in the right situation.

kongo_totte · #3 08-08-2005, 09:44 AM

Hand 1
I usually raise that flop. Take a free card on the turn.

Hand 2

If you're gonna continue the aggression on turn, you must lead IMO. Remember, semibluffing needs folding equity and if he bets he is pretty much commited. For a call you are getting 1:2.84 on a 1:3 shot so you don't quite have pot odds, but if you think you can make another $2 from villian on average on the river you have implied odds to call. Note that you might be drawing dead but it's not likely. Really the only possible hands are JJ or 77. I like a lead or a call after he bet $13.

Hand 3

As you seem to know, you have to fold pre-flop. Lead the flop. As played, check the turn and see what they do.

dtbog · #4 08-08-2005, 09:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: ($28.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $91 (All-In), MP1 calls $91, Button folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

What were you thinking here?

This is by far the worst action in your post.

djoyce003 · #5 08-08-2005, 10:21 AM

wow...i'm not quite sure you understand how this works.

You are a slight favorite with an OPEN ENDED straight/flush draw. Not one of these is an example of that. They are all gut shot straight flush draws. That is difference one.

hand 1 - take the free card on the turn, you have nothing, try to improve here....you are a signficant dog here now on the turn.

hand 2 - just call the bet again, you have nothing and aren't a favorite to improve...plus that paired board could mean he has a full house anyway.

hand 3 - Maybe the worst push i've ever seen on the turn. I'd bet about half the pot here hoping he just calls and doesn't raise.

You need to understand that a semi-bluff works in a couple of ways. It can win when your opponents fold, or it can win when you make your hand....but both ways of winning have to be possible for it to work. In a couple of these examples, your opponent is not folding for that last little bit of money he has. You have zero fold equity in hands 1 and 2...zero....as in the first way a semi bluff can win is out...so then it comes down to pot odds only, you are going to have to make your hands to win these....don't raise. Hand 3 you at least have some fold equity but overbetting the pot is stupid with nothing IMO. Now hopefully you reloaded at these tables and took advantage of your donkey image and pushed some hands with the nuts and got called.

KeithF40 · #6 08-08-2005, 10:35 AM

In first hand you can either call or raise on the flop. His bet into all those players shows some strength but youre not afraid of being reraised on the flop so raising is not a bad idea. Raising also might buy you some extra outs as a player closing out the action on the flop might call with second pair ace kicker and therefore your ace out is no longer an out as it might of been if you were able to get the pot heads up by raising on the flop. Raising might also buy you a free card. If you knew your opponent was very loose and would just call your flop raise then I might just decide to call and reevaluate the hand on the turn. If a K comes he might not suspect you hit your draw but if another club comes he might. If your opponent is not as observant as you are then you might be able to get him to lead the turn or get him to call your bet on the turn and of course if you miss your draw you take the free card always unless you have some monster read that if he checks the turn its weakness and hell fold to a bet by you. I have no idea why you didnt take the free card on the turn. Also you knew he was gonna call your bet so why make it as an underdog.

On the second hand why lead out on the flop with a gutshot, an over card, and a backdoor flush draw. When someone calls your bet like that preflop and two picture cards come you have to be just a little worried that he has you beat. I would just check the flop. If you were to bet the flop I think a smaller bet would be in order. Bet half the pot so now you only need to take it down 1 in every 3 times. There is about a 1 in 3 shot that hell flop a pair with two unpaired cards. If he has a pocket pair he would of raied with AA, KK, QQ, or JJ so he cant call your bet with two overcards out there if he had like TT, 99, 88, 77 and so on. There are no flush draws on board so you dont have to be afraid of that and the only open-ended straight draws on board are the T9 and the KT. He wouldnt of called a raise with either of those hands. He might of with T9s but thats not that likely. Now on the turn you got a great card. You now have the nut flush draw, an over card, and a gutshot. You are still drawing and are no longer a favorite so just check the hand as your opponent showed strength on the flop. If he doesnt have that good of a hand hell just check the turn behind you and youll get a free card. Your opponent however decides to bet. At this point you are getting rougly 3 to 1 odds on your money and you have 13 monster outs and an additional 3 not so bad outs. You are clearly getting the odds you need but if you raise and are reraised youll be shut out of the pot. Just call and let him make a mistake by giving you the odds to call. If he assumes you have a flush draw giving you 3 to 1 is not the ideal odds to give you. If the flush draw comes and you make a smallish bet on the river hell have to call you thus giving you the implied odds that you needed to call on the turn. If you felt that he was weak a much smaller raise could of accomplished the same thing. A huge raise like that might be trying to represent a 7. But remember that you raised preflop. What would you of raised with preflop if you had a 7. 77 maybe. Thats highely unlikely given that two sevens are on the board now. A7. Thats a possibility but with the two overcards it becomes slightly less probable but still probable. On the turn if you hit your 7 and it looked to be an unlikely holding wouldnt you of just led out after he called your potsized bet on the flop. The check raise is in my opinion a very weak move as if you lead out and are raised more of your opponents money is in the pot. If you check raise him only his initial bet is in the pot and now youre risking the chance of shutting him out of the pot. He doesnt believe you have a 7 and I wouldnt believe it either. You would of raised preflop with 76s or 87s but those are even more unlikely. If you had the 7 you would bet alot there cause its an unlikely holding but then at the same reasoning you would of lead out the turn cause it would be so unlikely that you held a 7 so in turn he was able to make a fairly easy deduction that you did not indeed have a 7.

On the last hand I dont see calling with that hand a terrible play. Its a loose low limit game and everyone has big stacks. Go ahead and call. Youll flop a good draw 1 in every 5 times so pay one dollar and possibly win 100 or more. If the table is passive then you can argue even more for this. I would personally fold the hand cause its hard to play drawing hands out of position. Im not necessarily afraid of the preflop action its just that once the flop comes my free card oppurtunities are almost gone and I have to be afraid that there will possibly be a live player behind me that can shut me out of the pot. On the flop I like your play alot. You are the next player to act after the button and your play must be taken seriously. Unfortunately for you you are at a table of maniacs and thus your play doesnt work as well. Your play did however get more money into a pot where you are close to being 50/50. Your play failed on the flop so just give up on the turn. Hope that you can get a free card or that youll be getting the right odds to call with your draw because your opponents did not bet the right amount on the turn. You could of accomplished the same thing you had set out to do on the turn by betting alot less. You showed strength on the flop and a potsized bet by you would show more stength than by vastly overbetting the pot. I have no idea why you continue to bet 5 times the pot for no reason.

Brad F. · #7 08-08-2005, 12:32 PM

Semi-bluffing is damn fun. That's what I have to say. It accomplishes a lot in the megagame picture, and if you play at a table for 2+ hours you should be able to take that image and run with it after taking down AA with 6-8 suited.

But, and this is a big but which I usually disregard, you have to be SMART about it. I love bluffing, it is the biggest leak in my game period. But I know why it is. I don't ever slow down.

You are betting way too much in your semibluffing. Lots of full pot bets or total overbets. Your opponents are going to have to fold a majority of the time in order for these bets to be correct.

Go for 1/2 pot bets, and use them often. Use them when you hit TPTK, use it when you hit a set, use it when you are drawing to the nuts or close to the nuts. If people see you bet 7-8 the same way you would a set of queens it will throw your opponents off and they will allow you to semibluff more effectively.

You say that you could lay down to resistance, but these three hands don't show that ability. You get resistance in hands 2 and 3 and you put all your money in at horrible spots. In order for bluffing to be successful you have to gain more in the long run than you lose. I don't see it happening for you if you play this way. You will lose big pots and win small ones like this.

Disciplined bluffing has been the key to my winning or losing money, and if you have it in your arsenal, you need to practice restraint, just as I need to. The problem is that I know how to do it effectively but my fingers keep moving that slider farther and farther to the right. I can see you doing the same thing.

Hope this helps. I'd be interested in more hand histories to evaluate if you want to PM me with them as this is a hole in my game too. Perhaps we can work it out together. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Brad