Knowing when to drop. Articles anybody?

[AcidJazz]

I'm rather new to all of this and so I've been playing pretty low limit games online. I'm studying and reading books as much as possible (it's been about 2-3 weeks now). I feel I'm pretty good at knowing what to play at first (how much variety is there really). I fold quite frequently (the two books I've gone through most of are Holdem Poker for Advanced Players and Winning Low Limit Holdem). Anyhoo if I hit something on the flop (typically high pair with a big kicker or two pair or it gets even uglier when I flop a set and I get beaten.

Quite frankly I'm usually pretty confident when I win and when I lose I have this doubt within me. I know it sounds as if I'm answering my own question, but I don't want to get outbluffed all of the time. Should I play conservatively until I begin noticing that I'm getting bluffed frequently? I never get bluffed so I figure this is the way to go.

If you have some articles out there that specifically talk about this, I'd be appreciative for the help.

[sin808]

huh? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[AcidJazz]

Bleh. I have trouble knowing when to let go of cards. I have a pretty decent hand and I'm aware its possible (and even probable at times) that there's a hand better than mine, but since I have a decent hand I just don't want to let it go. I'm afraid of somebody bluffing me =\

[sin808]

Ahhhh, ok...I'm not really sure of any articles that will help. The best thing you can do is learn to calculate your outs and pot odds. If your behind and have odds to call- call, otherwise fold. If it's close and/or you aren't really sure where you're at I tend towards calling.

[Knoler]

Hey, I speak jive. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

No specific articles off the top of my head, but here are a few ideas.

First of all, if you're playing lots of small stakes, you're going to want to check out Small Stakes Holdem (SSHE) by Ed Miller. It's more applicable than Hold'Em for Advanced Players (HEFAP) considering the games you're playing.

Second, it seems that (if I understand you correctly) you're getting down on yourself when you take a bad beat or two. You're going to have to realize that, in fact, bad beats are good for us. By definition, they're occuring when a player is making mistakes, but wins because his long shots come in. This makes you money in the long run.

At any rate, for more on how to deal with that, try posting or reading in 2+2's psychology forum.

Eh, that's it.
Regards,
-Brian

[AcidJazz]

I don't feel like bad hands are making me play differently (although they may be slightly). That other guy mentioned play your odds. Computing your odds based on what you want to get is very simple. I'm not sure how to go about computing my odds that what I have will win. Say I have pocket aces and I see two kings on the board. Do I drop or stay? There are tons of situations like that and I'm never sure what to do. People will bet, but I'm afraid people are just full of [censored] or are waiting until the last card or a bit of both...

[elmitchbo]

i totally understand. i posted a similar thread a day or so ago. second best hands kill me. i think what you're asking is what are the odds of winning with what you've got? i want to know the same thing.

there are all kinds of posts about odds of drawing out, and i understand all that. i can calculate my outs and come up with the pots odds for a call. what i want to know is the odds of winning with out improving, or in other words a 'no outs' calculation. what are the chances of me winning without improving my hand against someone elses draw? if the other guy has a flush draw, then he's got a 35% shot of making his hand. that means i'm 65% to win right? if i put one guy on a flush draw, and another guy on a straight draw, then what are my odds?

like the previous post... AA in the hole. when do you lay it down? top pair, top kicker? i lose with hands like that very often, and i don't know when to get out. you can't lat it down after the flop. if you stay in to the river it seems like you have som much in the pot it's worth on more bet to be sure you're not gettin bluffed.

[AngelicPenguin]

Here's when NOT to drop:
Ed Miller: Crushing Micro-Limit

Hopefully, this will also give you good info on when to.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
what are the chances of me winning without improving my hand against someone elses draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

play around with twodimes.net
it will give you a sense for how differnt card combinations stack up when pitted against one another.

just a start, i guess.