Ideas about Gamblers Ruin

#1 08-25-2005, 07:11 PM

I recently read most of gigabets posts, and he refers to gamblers ruin. Gamblers ruin states that a small +ev stiuation should be avoided, if the losing side of the coin will bring you to zero, which you cannot come back from. He stated that most of his bets were bluffs, but with gamblers ruin, the other players couldnt call them and face elimination.
Im confused if this idea of gamblers ruin can be applied to SNG's. Ill give a quick example.
8 players left in a sit n go.
most stacks are equal, but one player has tripled up off the two eliminated. Blinds are 25/50.
You have AK in BB, and its folded to SB who pushes. You know the player is loose and can be pushing alot of junk. But he has you covered, and if you lose you will be eliminated. The idea of gamblers ruin tells you to fold, is this the correct play here, or am i misinterpreting the concept?

Myst · #2 08-25-2005, 07:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I recently read most of gigabets posts, and he refers to gamblers ruin. Gamblers ruin states that a small +ev stiuation should be avoided, if the losing side of the coin will bring you to zero, which you cannot come back from. He stated that most of his bets were bluffs, but with gamblers ruin, the other players couldnt call them and face elimination.
Im confused if this idea of gamblers ruin can be applied to SNG's. Ill give a quick example.
8 players left in a sit n go.
most stacks are equal, but one player has tripled up off the two eliminated. Blinds are 25/50.
You have AK in BB, and its folded to SB who pushes. You know the player is loose and can be pushing alot of junk. But he has you covered, and if you lose you will be eliminated. The idea of gamblers ruin tells you to fold, is this the correct play here, or am i misinterpreting the concept?

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be, except that a 66% chance to win is a lot more than a small +EV situation.

Matt R. · #3 08-25-2005, 07:41 PM

As Myst said, this isn't a small +EV situation. Also keep in mind that in the course of any poker tournament (barring the unusual extremely lucky one), you're going to face a situation that will eliminate you at some point. You just have to find the situation that is the highest EV possible, or at least put yourself in a situation where the potential chips gained outweighs the risk of busting out.

Gambler's ruin definitely applies to sng's, just not quite to the same degree as it does for a wager where you can repeat the bet many times without the risk of ruin. It applies on a larger scale when it comes to bankroll management, which I guess you could say is 'true'(?) gambler's ruin, or at least more along the lines of what mathematicians are referring to.

lorinda · #4 08-25-2005, 07:44 PM

If you had something like 44 where you are very likely to be 51% or so to win the pot then it would apply.

Lori

#5 08-25-2005, 07:46 PM

Unless you're at the edge of your BR, this isn't really gambler's ruin; it has everything to do with ICM calculations, and what gives you better EV. Gambler's ruin means you can't afford to play because you'll never be able to play again if you lose. Here, if you lose, you can just play again, get AK again, and call again.

ChuckyB · #6 08-25-2005, 07:53 PM

I think "gambler's ruin" doesn't tell you to fold. I think it's the name for your desire to avoid being eliminated. Therefore it leads you to fold in uncertain situations (like facing massive overbets early in a tournament that you "know" are bluffs.)

The bettor is counting on "gambler's ruin" to make his bluff successful.

TheNoodleMan · #7 08-25-2005, 07:54 PM

Gigabet posts are like guns, a valuble tool in the right hands, but dangerous in the wrong hands.
There are far to many children playing with guns in this forum.

#8 08-25-2005, 07:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Gigabet posts are like guns, a valuble tool in the right hands, but dangerous in the wrong hands.
There are far to many children playing with guns in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why i asked if i was misinterpriting his post...

skipperbob · #9 08-25-2005, 08:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Gigabet posts are like guns, a valuble tool in the right hands, but dangerous in the wrong hands.
There are far to many children playing with guns in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gigabet's posts are like women...Fun to play around with; but expensive as hell if you believe them [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#10 08-25-2005, 08:05 PM

In SnGs, it's proper to play tighter than in cash games. This is not exactly because of gambler's ruin though because you can always get back to the same situation later. It's just because there's incentive to fold into third and second. If you were playing only for first, you should play exactly like it's a cash game (keeping in mind that your opponents will not), but this will not maximize your EV.

Here's a very specific example of gambler's ruin in SnGs.

You have $11, and have no way of earning money to feed yourself other than SnGs. So, you play an $11 (there's no point in playing a $6 because you still only have one buy-in). Your proper strategy here is to play only for third (very tightly) until you get ITM because you can't afford to lose.