OESD, overcards, and reads. Did I overthink this?

Duerig · #1 06-30-2005, 08:51 AM

Button in this hand sees around 40% of flops, and loves to bluff at scary rivers. However, ~2 hands ago I called his bluff HU on a 4 flush board with unimproved KK and took down the pot. He definitely is paying attention enough to remember who I am. On the turn, CO has 1.5 BB left, and as far as I know is generally very passive. How's my turn play?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Button calls, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, Button calls.

Since CO is passive I'm sure I'm behind here. But when he slows down, I'm pretty sure he's scared of what I'm holding.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets ...

At this point, CO has 1.5 BBs left. I'm pretty sure he'll call if I bet, and he'll bet if checked too.

I figure if a bet is going in on the turn anyway, I might as well put it in myself to try to fold out the button and buy some outs. I know the button respects my bets / raises, but I have no idea how he feels about the CO.

Did I overthink this play?

McGahee · #2 06-30-2005, 09:03 AM

I'd like it better if you were HU with the short stack.

Since button coldcalled the flop, I wouldn't 3-bet CO's raise because I'd rather check/call than bet a turn brick into 2 opponents with a drawing hand OOP. Once you 3-bet, you're pretty much committed to leading the turn since checking would be kinda gay.

TheRapist99 · #3 06-30-2005, 09:06 AM

I like it.

@bsolute_luck · #4 06-30-2005, 09:24 AM

i think you played it fine because you'll be betting out almost any card that comes anyways. and you have the nut flush draw if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls.

what exactly isn't a turn blank here? the only card i'm nervous to see actually is my Q since it puts 4 to a straight and i have to river a K to win.

you have 8 outs to improve if he makes trips or 2 pair on the turn anyways, so you can easily check/fold the river UI if raised here.

MrWookie47 · #5 06-30-2005, 10:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like it better if you were HU with the short stack.

Since button coldcalled the flop, I wouldn't 3-bet CO's raise because I'd rather check/call than bet a turn brick into 2 opponents with a drawing hand OOP. Once you 3-bet, you're pretty much committed to leading the turn since checking would be kinda gay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. You overplayed this.

Duerig · #6 06-30-2005, 10:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Since button coldcalled the flop, I wouldn't 3-bet CO's raise because I'd rather check/call than bet a turn brick into 2 opponents with a drawing hand OOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your line actually. The original reason I 3bet was because I figured I had 8 outs for a straight + ~2 outs for my overcards + 1.5 for the backdoor flush. The 3 bet was supposed to be for value. I know this puts me in a bad place oop on the turn, but I figured it was more important to put value bets in on the flop with a strong draw. Does anyone think I'm being too optimistic when counting outs?

Bodhi · #7 06-30-2005, 02:14 PM

Yes, you overthunk it, because even passive players will bet like maniacs when they're short-stacked.

Because you only have the one-card straight, I think I'd like it more if you just called this flop raise and checked the turn. You don't have good implied odds when your opponent is out of chips.

bozlax · #8 06-30-2005, 04:37 PM

I think you're right to bet, here. Having pressed the flop OOP like you did, not betting screams, "I'm on a draw," and you're getting bet into. Perhaps betting out yourself will keep it to one bet on the turn.

callydrias · #9 06-30-2005, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...I figured I had 8 outs for a straight + ~2 outs for my overcards + 1.5 for the backdoor flush. The 3 bet was supposed to be for value. I know this puts me in a bad place oop on the turn, but I figured it was more important to put value bets in on the flop with a strong draw. Does anyone think I'm being too optimistic when counting outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

A little optimistic. I don't think you can count all 8 straight outs since you may be playing for a tie if someone else has a queen. Your Q overcards are not very good because it would put a 4-straight on the board and you A overcards are probably weak as well with the possibility of reverse domination. Both overcards are also weakened by the broadway-heavy board which is much more likely than rags to hit someone with 2 pair or more.

Given that and the fact that your implied odds are reduced by CO's short stack, I would just call the flop raise, check/call the turn, and check/fold the river UI.