Quitting While Ahead

[nsdjoe]

Lately I've had a bit of a problem. It used to be when I'd sit down at a table, I'd go down a bit before I won my first pot, and sometimes it would take me quite a while to get back in the black, so I'd log a bunch of hands, and, usually, a nice win.

For the last six sessions running, I've gone way up right away, and because i'm working on building my bankroll, I've quit (sometimes in as little as 30 minutes). Now, on the other hand, I also want to log alot of hands purely for experience sake.

What do you guys think? If you go up a certain number of BBs, do you quit while youre ahead, or figure the table must be juicy and soldier on, risking the chance of losing some/all of it?

[jrz1972]

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What do you guys think?

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I think this sort of thing is the statistical equivalent of voodoo. It's all one long session.

[istewart]

If the game is +EV, you play. Or find a more +EV game.

[moot]

If only there was an artilce in the May issue that could somehow answer this question...

Oh yeah. Zoink:

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/c...blade0505.html

[DMBFan23]

stop losses are not useful from an EV standpoint, that is, the next 100 hands you play are the next 100 hands you play.

that said, there can be psychological benefits to ending a session up, notably

1) when you're in, or just starting to come out of, a downswing.
2) when you've just moved up a limit

for example, I ended a 2/4 6max session at UB a little early because I erased my 25 BB loss (and then some) from the previous day, and felt good about being in the black. so I stopped, realizing it didn't impact my EV but helped my fragile psyche [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

then later, I was playing some 5/10 6max for the first time. wow what a soft game. but anyways, I was about to book a nice +7BB session when I dumped 3BB on an AKs missed flush draw hand. no prob, I still had +4BBs and one more hand to play. I was dealt KJo UTG, and I folded what was normally an easy raise, and quit the session to ensure a win in my first session.

[istewart]

Shoot the J. Shoot it.

[StevieG]

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What do you guys think?

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I think this sort of thing is the statistical equivalent of voodoo. It's all one long session.

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I think voodoo works, as in the same way a placebo works. If nsdjoe is going to feel uncomfortable about winnings slipping away, and that worsens his play (turtles into more passive play, or the lead loosens up his starting hands), then by all means nsdjoe should stop.

I agree with you, though, in the sense that voodoo is all in your head. If nsdjoe can learn to think of it as one long session, he'll be better off. Being ahead or behind should not change your play.

Nice avatar, jrz.

[DMBFan23]

how about you and your crew, versus me...and the REVOLUTION

[phlup]

I think one thing people are overlooking is the psychological aspect of being up or down. Sure poker is one open ended session, we all know that. But we also know we play different poker when we're winning or losing. Putting a predetermined ceiling or floor or your wins/loses isn't that bad of an idea.

What I think you should do though is keep moving it. If you're playing .5/1 and you find you stop playing optimally when you're up 25 bucks, then by all means stop after you hit that level. But only do that this week. Next week move it up to 30. Then 35. Keep the level going up so you stay aggressive and have a goal to hit.

Likewise, if you're losing big you're going to be a little gun shy. This won't help your stack at all. You'll play more passive poker and end up probably losing more.

So yeah, go ahead and set a limit for yourself. Sure it's not what the pros do, but then again they don't play .5/1. As you advance you'll start to see that it is one big session and you won't be as influenced by your win/losses in this one.

Just my two cents.

[nsdjoe]

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If only there was an artilce in the May issue that could somehow answer this question...

Oh yeah. Zoink:

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/c...blade0505.html

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Excellent link, thanks.