NBA Totals Breakdowns 2/8/2005

[20Five]

Games to be Brokedown Tonight
GS @ Orl
Phx @ Sac
Mem @ Minn

Couple possible unders and an Over here.. gonna give them the quick look tonight.

Have fun, get better!! Comments/Suggestions welcome [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[20Five]

GS @ Orl
The play
None

The Reason
GS O/U is 8-4 on no days rest.

both teams giving up about 97ish points a game on D.. key here in this total matchup is how many points will GS score?

Averaging less then 92 a game in their last 5.. Shooting fairly poorly from 3PT and FT%..

Game Should be a fairly one sided contest, which leans away from OT or extra FT's at the finish..

No Murphy again.. I didnt see tonights game vs Mia, so I cant be totally sure how him being out affected the game.. if anyone did see this, comments are appreciated..

Line is the same as when they played in December, that contest went way over..

All in all, I think this line might be a few points too high.. but probably not high enough for us to need to bet on it. Maybe if it crawls any higher for some reason then I would take the under, but the way Orlando plays Defense for now I think this is a no play.

[20Five]

Minn @ Mem
The play
Over 185

The Reason
This game is kind of tricky, as the trends and the numbers conflict quite a bit. Basically, the trends are so favored to an under here that I think they have driven the line down, and given us some points to shoot for.

For instance, O/U is 5-20 in Memphis, thats amazing.. so many unders. The 183 total has only been not reached in one of the past 4 Mem games..

All the injuries for memphis make this somewhat strange to cap, so Im basically looking at the most straightforward numbers.

Memphis D is obviously much weaker with their guys out, giving up an average of around a hundred a game.. (slightly skewed with a matchup vs phx in there).. Minn has not played much defense lately, they have given up atleast 90 in every game since 1/26..

Defense shouldnt be the focus of either team I dont think in this game, and with that I think this total is around 5 points short. (High 3PT% for Mem and FT% for Minn also make this slightly more comfortable)

My system comes up with many more unders then it does overs, just the way it comes out.. I dont find too many Overs, But I think this one is worth the play at 185.

Predicted Final 99:94 Minn

I also wouldnt be suprised if this total increases a point or a point and a half before tip.

[20Five]

Phx @ Sac
Not going to break this one down.. total seemed slightly high at first, but tempo and trends are pointing to a probable over.

Dont see a much value in the under that I thought could be there.. hell, this game probably a better over value bet!! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[RedeemerKing]

Just curious here 20five, but it seems like you like betting the totals more than teams. If so why. Im just curious and like to get all the input i can. Do you think they are easier to pick?

[NoChance]

Any thoughts on Denver -7 for tonight?

I have been following someone on another forum who posted a trend a few weeks ago that was 14-0 as of January 28th. He won last night with NJ -4 (got lucky it went to overtime) to bring the record for this trend to 18-1. Tonight Denver fits the trend. Any thoughts on the game? I am clueless about the NBA but winning on his picks as of late.

In another situation he also likes Dallas. A different trend on them that is 7-0 this year. Thoughts?

[RedeemerKing]

18-1!!!!! Tell me the trend

[NoChance]

Any DIVISIONAL home favorite of 3.5 or more with REVENGE (lost a previous game to the opponent).

Take it for what it's worth. Denver fits for tonight. Not sure any of you take any of this stuff as valid trend but it is winning.

[20Five]

Lots of people will tell you that trends in the NBA arent worth much of anything.. I think they can be, but you have to take each one for what its worth.

Obviously if someone has turned up with an amazing record in the past couple weeks or so then they are onto something.. but in the same regard I wouldnt be suprised if the same trend will sooner rather then later fall back towards mediocrity.

If you bet best of luck to you!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[josie_wales]

Hey NoChance,

Would you post those trends/picks as they occur? Kinda like that "unranked/ranked/way/fav/" trend...or whatever it is?

Thanks

JW