O/8 5-10 $500 Drawdown - Normal?

[otctrader]

Lost $500 playing in a loosish O/8 5-10 ring game over the course of about 10 hours; my play was very tight, generally only drawing to the nuts, only playing choice hands pre-flop. Occasionally played a KKxx suited. Did not have ONE flush or straight draw hit, and was counterfeited on at least 75% of my nut lows on the turn/river.

All the major losses were from heavy action pots when I was chasing a draw to the nut straight/flush which didn't hit.

Who was winning at the table? Two or three guys who were chasing bottom two pairs or bottom sets and got them to fill up on the turn/river. Of course, they took down quite a few pots with the unimproved junk too.

Is $500 in 10 hours a reasonable (statistically speaking) drawdown, or just indicative of bad play on my part?

[Buzz]

"Is $500 in 10 hours a reasonable (statistically speaking) drawdown, or just indicative of bad play on my part?"

OTC Trader - Hard to say. $500 would be a severe loss for me in a $5-10 game. In fact it would be an impossible loss in a $5-10 game. I'll explain.

Speaking just for myself, sometimes I think much more clearly than at other times. This first became apparent to me years ago in graduate school. I remember sitting down in the evening and being simply unable to do the assigned problems for a particular class I was taking. I remember being so depressed that I felt like crying.

I went to bed wondering what would become of me. Then when I got up in the morning and looked at the problems, they were somehow do-able. There was some little trick in each problem and somehow when my brain was fresh I had insight as to what the little trick was. But only when my brain was fresh.

Every time I tried to do the assigned problems (mostly involving applied partial differential equations) for that class when my brain was tired, I simply couldn't do them. (I mean I was clueless). But if I had a nap before trying the problems, then I could do them.

I couldn't really tell the difference in how sharp my brain would be by the way I felt. It wasn't like I was sleepy or even feeling tired. Yet when I had just gotten some sleep, even though I wasn't sleepy or tired before I got the sleep, I could think better.

I think it's the same for poker - at least for me. Sometimes I have insight, while other times, without exactly being conscious of being tired, I think I may lack insight.

Another strong possibility is when I'm in a poker game and losing, I may be in over my head, playing against opponents who are much better poker players than I am.

When I'm losing I can't usually tell if it's because I'm unlucky, lacking insight, or in over my head.

The above is all rather vague. Bottom line is I limit my losses. For example, I'd quit a $5-10 game if I was down $200. Thus I could never lose more than that in a single session.

You might consider setting a loss limit for a playing session. You won't want to quit a game that looks easy when you're stuck a couple hundred bucks - but maybe you're missing something - and tomorrow is another day.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[sam h]

"I may be in over my head, playing against opponents who are much better poker players than I am."

Buzz, I find it hard to believe that you come across this situation very often in low or medium limit O8.

Just an overdue and general thanks for consistently providing interesting and thoughtful analysis in the threads on this forum.

[miseryshiver]

excellent post buzz very well written, please keep up the good work

[chaos]

That does seem a little steep. Perhaps you were not still playing your A game after all those hours.

There is a certain amount of luck that influences your results. A major factor in your results at Omaha/8 is how many pots you scoop. Some nights I do very well because of a few unexpected scoops - hands where I expected to win low but took down the whole pot. On the other side are the nights were you continually seem to get quartered or sixthed.

[beetman]

I am not opposed to using stop limits if it makes you comfortable, but I think 20 big bets is awfully low--you could easily lose that if I played in 4 pots to the river and didn't win anything, plus paying some blinds. In my experience, I'm a lot more likely to suffer a loss like that in a good game as opposed to a not-so-good game. If losing 20 big bets at that limit would make you uncomfortable, I would suggest dropping down in stakes a bit, perhaps to a limit where you could handle a loss of 50 big bets.

I am incredibly conservative with my bankroll requirements for a few reasons (a major reason is because I bet sports too and I often have a lot of my bankroll tied up in bets), but one of the reasons is because I prefer having a large enough bankroll so that a large negative swing won't phase me emotionally. When I played higher limits and on a 300 BB bankroll, I would sometimes go on a -80 BB swing and would get upset because that was a relatively large amount of money. Now I play with a 1000 BB bankroll at a minimum. I'm sure that's excessively conservative because according to my results, I can play on a 380 BB bankroll with only a .3% risk of ruin, but it also allows me to play without any real concern about my short term results.

[iblucky4u2]

OTC - here are three points I hope help you:

1 - 10 hours of getting your brains beat by poor players will sap you of focus - causing us to attract those "bad beats." Table image is very important and there will be days when we have targets on our backs, so... quit before your focus and bankroll are gone.

2 - You say "All the major losses were from heavy action pots when I was chasing a draw to the nut straight/flush" - one thing to remember about O/8 - when you are drawing to the nuts but there is already a low made rarely do you get good pot odds. People with the low & a backup are free rolling on you. You will find them hitting the full house on bottom 2 when they have the low made or hitting those low flushes that kill your top set, flush or str8. This is the most expensive mistake made by even the better O/8 players. Save your $ for draws that you can/will scoop. These are the hands where you can make those low draws pay bigtime! Play only top sets and when the board pairs, make those playing bottom 2 pay - especially when there is no low.

3 - You say that you played only premium hands pre-flop, then you state "Occasionally played a KKxx suited" - sounds like less than a premium hand to me! Don't decieve yourself into thinking you are playing tight when you are not. This is easy to do after 10 hours at the table - see #1 above.

$500 in 10 hours works out to only 5 BBs per hour - easy to do at the tables. Losing 5 BBs/hour is ok, but after several hours it's time to spot the trend. Be aware that some days the O/8 gods are not on your side, set yourself a loss limit that you can handle financially AND emotionally and stick to it.

[DPCondit]

We don't have 5-10 much in Los Angeles, but 6-12 is very common. I have lost more than that on a couple of occasions, and won more than that on quite a few occasions. I generally don't start to worry that much that I am playing bad or running really bad until after I have blown through a couple of racks ($400). Even still, if I blow $400, and I still think I'm playing well, then I'll buy another rack without too much thought to it. Generally it turns out to be the right thing. But, if I, for some reason, just don't have a good feel that night, I'll just cut my losses there.

I push quite a few small edges, and therefore my up and down swings within a game can be fairly large at times.

Don