How about this fold?

JrJordan · #1 08-07-2005, 08:31 PM

Button is passive calling station. He will cold call this flop with overs about 90% of the time. The remaining flop players were also likely cold callers, so I figured an immediate flop raise was a good idea. SB on the other hand is a solid TAG, beyond ABC player.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, MP folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB raises, Hero folds...

Helmuth laydown or smart play?

krishanleong · #2 08-07-2005, 08:33 PM

Seems really bad to me. What does he think you have after the flop raise?

Krishan

joker122 · #3 08-07-2005, 08:34 PM

i'm trying to think of a hand to put SB on if he is in fact a solid tag. he would 3bet the flop with a set, no?

aK13 · #4 08-07-2005, 08:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i'm trying to think of a hand to put SB on if he is in fact a solid tag. he would 3bet the flop with a set, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hand that is raising the turn should have 3bet the flop.

Thats F'ing terrible laydown, IMO.

JrJordan · #5 08-07-2005, 08:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Seems really bad to me. What does he think you have after the flop raise?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

He probably has me on an isolation raise with a 3, any 7, 44-66, or a two pair hand for a reasonable start.

Now let's put villain on a hand. SB solid TAG limp would include any low suited connectors or 1 gappers, low PP. He's not betting a gutshot into this many people on the flop, so he's had to hit the board in some way. Most likely options are a 7. Doubtful he'd bet a 2 or 3 since he's got so many players who will call ahead of him and hates any turn card that comes. He couldn't have any 2 pair hands here. Lastly he could have a 22, 77, or 33.

Essentially the only way we win this hand is if he would smooth call a flop raise, then raise the turn in a protected pot with a 7x SB limping hand. With effective odds of around 6:1, am I good often enough to call down? It can't be that bad of a fold if everything I've said so far is correct.

Catt · #6 08-07-2005, 09:40 PM

I think he could complete and lead with A5 on this board (gutshot + over) - not saying I would be, but saying it's possible. I also think it's possible that he has a 2-pair hand (completed with 34s, 42s, e.g.) though his flop lead makes that quite a bit less likely. He could of course also have a set, but I think a set almost surely 3-bets the flop with everyone already in for 2.

But it's not necessarily a decision between folding or calling down. You could see the river and fold when you don't fill up getting an immediate 9:5 to 1 with Button still to call closing the action if you were sure you were behind. I don't think you can be so certain you're behind and would expect to see something like A7o or A3o often enough to make peeling the turn correct. Either way, you'll have a tough decision on the river if you believe your reads are completely accurate and don't hit on the river. So, I see the river (and I almost certainly see a showdown, but I pay off too much).

JrJordan · #7 08-07-2005, 10:03 PM

Seems like a standard call down for the majority here. Good. I actually called down to be shown 33. Hoping to spark some discussion on this since I personally thought his hand range was much more narrow than what many of you are saying. Looks like it's just SOP.

wackjob · #8 08-07-2005, 11:11 PM

How about a middle pocket pair? 9's or 10's that didnt get raised preflop? I think you have to calldown here.