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#21
12-08-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: Hit a set on turn, but puts 3 flush on board
[ QUOTE ]
Why, in your range, do you narrow it down to 2 overcards (and the FD)? Do you think he'd call the flop bet with QJo or KJo or A8o thinking the flop missed both of you and he may have high card? I don't understand. I could see Q9s/o or K9s/o calling, but not 2 random overcards here. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know how fish think, and it consistently amazes me. I wish I could explain it to you, but it's possible that a hand like KQo could go fishing here. It's obviously not a wise call, but, afterall, they are called fish for a reason. Edit: I should add that hands like 78, 47, 4x, 6x, or 5x could also call here. 
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#22
12-08-2005, 03:22 PM
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Re: Hit a set on turn, but puts 3 flush on board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Why, in your range, do you narrow it down to 2 overcards (and the FD)? Do you think he'd call the flop bet with QJo or KJo or A8o thinking the flop missed both of you and he may have high card? I don't understand. I could see Q9s/o or K9s/o calling, but not 2 random overcards here. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know how fish think, and it consistently amazes me. I wish I could explain it to you, but it's possible that a hand like KQo could go fishing here. It's obviously not a wise call, but, afterall, they are called fish for a reason. Edit: I should add that hands like 78, 47, 4x, 6x, or 5x could also call here. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I wish I could explain it to you, [/ QUOTE ] Well, I wouldn't want to take up that much of your time [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] but I see your point. In my OP I should've said "likely" hands in my range.
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#23
12-08-2005, 03:34 PM
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Re: Hit a set on turn, but puts 3 flush on board
You'd be getting better than 2 to 1 on your call. With 10 outs, I don't see how you could be sure enough of your read to lay the hand down. So if you bet the turn, you're committing yourself to the hand.
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#24
12-08-2005, 03:37 PM
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Re: Hit a set on turn, but puts 3 flush on board
I'm thinking the same way you are. I think betting may actually be a bit higher EV, but not by enough to make it worth the risk. Assuming you play much better pushbot than the opponents, it seems to me the extra EV gained isn't worth the risk.
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#25
12-08-2005, 03:37 PM
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Re: Hit a set on turn, but puts 3 flush on board
[ QUOTE ]
bet the pot, and if he pushes, hope he is on a flush draw (likely) or hope you draw out. I aint folding. course my itm is lower and my percent 1st is higher than most, might be a reason..... [/ QUOTE ] Lacky, I think at your level, it's reasonable to put your opponents on a more legitimate hand range than at the $33s. Thus, once you bet the turn, you're more often than not pot committed, and know what you're up against.
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#26
12-08-2005, 04:52 PM
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Re: Hit a set on turn, but puts 3 flush on board
I like to keep the pot small here. I don't mind a check on the turn. I'll call upto a 3/4ths pot bet on the river if another diamond doesn't hit.
Betting out also has benefits to define the hand, but you really can't fold unless its a significant re-raise.
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