Somehwat OT: Can someone check my math on the PP Sidebet

Student Caine · #1 10-09-2005, 08:02 PM

Obviosuly Party's new "Sidebet" is a sucker bet, I was just trying to figure out how much of a sucker bet it was and here is what I came up with:

We need 3 red cards on the flop and our chances for each card being red are as follows:

Card 1: 26/52 = 50% of the time Card 1 will be red
Card 2: 25/51 = ~49% of the time Card 2 will be red when Card 1 is red
Card 3: 24/50 = 48% of the time Card 3 will be red when Card 1 and Card 2 are red

Since we need all 3 of the above conditions to be met we need to multiply them out:

50% * ~49% * 48% = 11.76%

Converting to odds, we are looking at ~7.5:1 odds that all 3 cards will be red.

Now, what I found to be a nice tricky move by PP was that the bet is 8 for 1, which means that they keep the one and give you 8 when you win, therefore you are only getting 7:1 odds on your money (I caught this because this is what happens when you play the center of the craps table [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]).

Am I off anywhere? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Does anyone disagree? [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Does anyone even care?! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

milesdyson · #2 10-09-2005, 08:08 PM

yeah, that's right.

irishpint · #3 10-09-2005, 08:10 PM

if you sat down with 9 friends at a 10 person table and knew all the cards out (if they were red or black) then you would have a 32 card deck. if one color had a substaintially larger number of cards left, would this even be profitable? and if it is, i'm down.

Student Caine · #4 10-09-2005, 08:12 PM

Yes, it would work at some point (I'm not sure how many black cards would need to be out - I was going to do that math next) [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I would have to imagine that you have to place the bet before the cards are dealt though. If not, I anticipate a patch to the party software very, very soon. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

milesdyson · #5 10-09-2005, 08:13 PM

yes, you have to place the bet before the hand is dealt.

irishpint · #6 10-09-2005, 08:13 PM

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
yes, you have to place the bet before the hand is dealt.

[/ QUOTE ]

well f that.

DCWildcat · #7 10-09-2005, 08:23 PM

fold

nh

Student Caine · #8 10-09-2005, 08:26 PM

So if collusion were possible it looks like we would just need to know that the number of black cards out was greater than the number of red cards out to make it +EV:

Assume 10 people seated and we know all 20 hole cards.

If 9 hole cards are red and 11 hole cards are black then our formula would be:

Card 1: 17/32 = 53.13%
Card 2: 16/31 = 51.61%
Card 3: 15/30 = 50.00%

Our new product: 53.13% * 51.61% * 50.00% = 13.71%

Converting to odds we get 6.29:1

So basically we would just need to pick red or black based upon how many red and black cards were dealt preflop.

Anyways, thanks for the confirming reply. I'll let this thing die as I am sure it's not nearly as interesting as the "Did I extract maximum value out of my flopped Quads" posts that I make. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Wally Weeks · #9 10-10-2005, 02:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yes, you have to place the bet before the hand is dealt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I was going to go do some crazy side bet collusion. Screw it, I'll learn to beat the game by not cheating! Wish me luck, I might be going pro soon!!!

Shillx · #10 10-10-2005, 03:23 AM

I'd play this game all day long if you could bet after you look at your cards. They could even crackdown on collusion and it wouldn't matter. You hold 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and bet on Black.

p = 26*25*24/50/49/48 = .1327 = 6.54:1 or 7.54 for 1

[censored] bastards