Turn Decision

[Schneids]

Hey Mike,

I've been thinking about this hand long and hard and meant to ask you last night who a few of the people were in this hand, but never had the chance to away from the table and didn't really feel like shouting across it to ask you for names.

I think there's no way I do anything but call on the flop. I agree with every reason you gave and assume about 90% of the time SB 3-bets you on the flop.

As for the turn, if you have a ten do you ever play the flop like this? Does the SB know if you could play it this way? I guess from my experiences with you you're kind of a flop pounder (though def. not as much of a flop pounder as CMO, and perhaps not as much of one as me) so it's totally in your discretion whether you think you raising the turn can credible convince SB to fold an overpair. I don't feel like doing the math but hopefully 1800gambler or Nate will come around and figure out what percent of the time your raise needs to pick you up an extra 3-6 outs (perhaps we'll say on average your raise, when it succeeds at forcing SB to fold a better hand, gives you 4.5 more outs... since it's hard to say how often SB has JJ or how often SB might fold a hand like QsQ or how often UTG+2 actually has trips and you have no reason to try to get Q/J as outs).

Anyway, this hand is still really tough for me to say without knowing UTG+2 and SB.

Intuitively I think it feels correct to raise on the turn but that changes if UTG+2 is 3-betting me anywhere close to 100% of the time when he has trips (or occasionally w/o trips).

P.S. you missed a whale of a time last night on the 3/6. I've never had more fun dropping 4.5 racks in my life.