Lesson : Going for Overcalls? Know your EV! - Page 3

Paxosmotic · #21 08-27-2005, 01:35 AM

I talk about the chance of him folding in the original post as well as throughout the thread. A few people disagree with me saying it's a wash and you can safely add 1, but then they weren't quoted by SaintD today so they don't really matter now do they?

DavidC · #22 08-27-2005, 02:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I talk about the chance of him folding in the original post as well as throughout the thread. A few people disagree with me saying it's a wash and you can safely add 1, but then they weren't quoted by SaintD today so they don't really matter now do they?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Right on.

uh... I really don't read around here as much as I should... who's SaintD? Sorry. My buddies call me Captain Oblivious, so this kinda shows why I guess.

DavidC · #23 08-27-2005, 02:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Again, I agree with the conclusion. I just think that you need to allow for the "1" to be read-dependent, just as the percentages that the following players will/will not call is read-dependent.

With a "big laydown" open-bettor on your right and two or three weak-tights on your left, for instance, I think your formula has to make room for the fact that you might get a call from NONE of them if you raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ahh alright, I follow you now.

I need to work on developing a formula for not running breakeven at 2/4. As soon as I figure it out I'll post it here for discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

other than the fact that his formula didn't show % chance of orig bettor folding, his current formula does indeed include the chance that they all fold.

and I guess he mentioned that the orig bettor might fold, too. (sorry pax)

invictus33 · #24 08-27-2005, 03:05 AM

The only real problem I have with the formula is that the math is arbitrary. If you just do some simple addition you'll see that so long as you don't fold out more then half the people with your raise then you'll be making a profit vs. just calling a bet.

If you take 5 people to the showdown with you and you raise and everyone calls there's +10BB in the pot, if 2 fold then you have +6BB in the pot and if 3 fold you have +4BB in the pot. If all you do is call in this situation and it gets called around then you have +5BB in the pot.

So long as you think half the people at showdown are going to call a raise then you're always going be +EV. More often then not if the pot is this big then you're going to get the callers you need to make this play. If you've got a strong showdown hand you should be raising most of the time in big pots.