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#21
08-16-2005, 05:38 PM
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Re: Flopped Set - When to slow down
I think your thoughts are spot on. However, we can only put him on AA after we've gathered sufficient evidence to do so (in other words, we can't give him credit until he caps the turn).
At the river, it's a matter of calling 1 bet. The pot is ginormous. 25.75 BB when it's to us. We're getting 25.75:1 for our money here. He probably has AA, but even if he has AK one time in 25 it's a profitable call. This is much better than 50/50 at the point that we can consider AA a possibility. 
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#22
08-16-2005, 05:41 PM
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Re: Flopped Set - When to slow down
I'll echo that. Even if Villain flashes me his cards on the river, I've gotta call one more bet to end the suffering on the off chance I mistook his girlfriends boobs for his cards and he's actually holding QQ or something.
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#23
08-16-2005, 05:42 PM
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Re: Flopped Set - When to slow down
[ QUOTE ]
It's very good to see someone thinking in this forum. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks man. [ QUOTE ] However, this theory is wrong, since there is so much dead money in the pot. You only have to win the pot far less than 50% of the time after putting in a few bets on the flop to make it profitable. [/ QUOTE ] This might be correct if their are blinds from other players in the pot and if that % of the pot is great enough to offset the amount of times you get sucked out on when villain has AK. The dead money placed in the pot PF by you and the villain should not be counted as "dead". Half of it came from your stack and half from the villain's. Running this hand many times over, you will lose more then 50% of the time. Ideally, you would never get involved in the hand in the first place if you knew you had KK vs. AK/AA with that flop. You bring up a good point about the dead money, however, if it came from other stacks. Something I didn't consider.
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#24
08-16-2005, 05:42 PM
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Re: Flopped Set - When to slow down
[ QUOTE ]
I'll echo that. Even if Villain flashes me his cards on the river, I've gotta call one more bet to end the suffering on the off chance I mistook his girlfriends boobs for his cards and he's actually holding QQ or something. [/ QUOTE ] Hahaha.
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#27
08-16-2005, 05:45 PM
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Re: Flopped Set - When to slow down
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It's very good to see someone thinking in this forum. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks man. [ QUOTE ] However, this theory is wrong, since there is so much dead money in the pot. You only have to win the pot far less than 50% of the time after putting in a few bets on the flop to make it profitable. [/ QUOTE ] This might be correct if their are blinds from other players in the pot and if that % of the pot is great enough to offset the amount of times you get sucked out on when villain has AK. The dead money placed in the pot PF by you and the villain should not be counted as "dead". Half of it came from your stack and half from the villain's. Running this hand many times over, you will lose more then 50% of the time. Ideally, you would never get involved in the hand in the first place if you knew you had KK vs. AK/AA with that flop. You bring up a good point about the dead money, however, if it came from other stacks. Something I didn't consider. [/ QUOTE ] Something to note is that the money you put in on the flop IS indeed dead money. You can't give him credit for AA until he shows you that he deserves it. And by that time, the put is enormous, even heads up. You're right, most of the time you play with this flop with AA-AK, you will lose. Too bad the pot is already like 12BBs .
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#28
08-16-2005, 05:49 PM
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Re: Flopped Set - When to slow down
[ QUOTE ]
Checkraise the river and call a 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] Capping the turn?
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#29
08-16-2005, 05:55 PM
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Re: Flopped Set - When to slow down
[ QUOTE ]
Something to note is that the money you put in on the flop IS indeed dead money. You can't give him credit for AA until he shows you that he deserves it. And by that time, the put is enormous, even heads up. You're right, most of the time you play with this flop with AA-AK, you will lose. Too bad the pot is already like 12BBs . [/ QUOTE ] You're exactly right here. If you were already in the spot where 12 BB were in the pot, you would probably not want to fold since you'd consistently be giving up those 12 BB. I'd have to crunch the numbers to be certain, but with such a large pot, I'd guess it's definitely correct to call down, since you can take down those 12 BB a good % of the time. Thanks for pointing this out, Zeus.
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