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Old 08-29-2005, 05:07 PM
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Default Flopping top FH against quads

Long time reader, first time poster here. I didn't save the hand history, so bare with me here.....

Third hand in a $100 buy-in, NL STT. Everyone starts with $1500 in this 9-handed tourney. With the blinds at $15/$30, I open in middle position with pocket-10s for $105. I get one caller immediately behind me and the guy in the the SB, who I know is a whack-job, raises to $165. I figure he is trying to take control with a mid-pair or AQ/ AK... after all, his tiny reraise is at least an instant call from the two players already in the pot (which you would not want with a high PP, unless one player is all-in). With the pot now at $405, I decide to reraise $450 more because I know I have the best hand (I had notes on both players). Guy immediately behind me thinks for 5-seconds and calls; the SB calls immediately.

Flop comes out 10 7 7. I check with my full house, guy behind me checks and predictably, the guy in the SB goes all-in for his remaining $800. I call, as does the guy behind me. The SB has 99, and I am happy. The guy behind me shows 7 7, or quads, and I am not so happy. Needless to say I didn't catch my one remaining out.

1) I'm sure this has been asked before... what are the odds of the flop coming out XYY when hero has XX and villain has YY?

2) Once I flop comes out I don't see how I can avoid losing all my chips (turn and river were both blanks). Forget about the fact I had top pair against 2 smaller pairs.... did I misplay this hand pre-flop? If the SB had reraised significantly, I would have seriously considered folding. I'm really struggling with the guy with 7s calling as he had to figure he was a huge dog after my reraise.

With only $150 left, I'm crippled and out five hands later.
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Old 08-29-2005, 06:16 PM
timex timex is offline
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Default Re: Flopping top FH against quads

There are 46 cards left, and one must be on of you're two tens, and the other two must be either 2 9's or 2 7's. Lets say 2 7's come, there are 12 possibilities for how the cards could fall, because 3 cards can be arrange in 6 ways and either ten could be in use, so 12/ 46 *45*44. Since either 7's or 9's could fall it is 24/46*45*44 = 1 /23*15*11 = 1 /3795 I think, so about 0.025%. I can't answer Q 2), I'm more of a $5 SNG player [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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  #3  
Old 08-30-2005, 06:52 PM
Kaeser Kaeser is offline
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Default Re: Flopping top FH against quads

Question 2) I don't like your re-raise. It's early in the tourney and you have position on the raiser plus you already have a decent idea what his hand is. Call the 60 and see a flop first. I don't think you want to coinflip while the blinds are still 15/30.
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Old 09-01-2005, 07:46 PM
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Default Re: Flopping top FH against quads

[ QUOTE ]
Question 2) I don't like your re-raise. It's early in the tourney and you have position on the raiser plus you already have a decent idea what his hand is. Call the 60 and see a flop first. I don't think you want to coinflip while the blinds are still 15/30.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the feedback. Next time I come across a situation like that early on, I may make sure I have a premium hand (like KK or AA) before repeating that. If it were any other player than the one who reraised slightly, I likely would have just called.

If it were later in the tourney (blinds $150 and $300), and we were down to 5 players, perhaps that warrants this type of move more often.
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Old 09-02-2005, 03:20 AM
tripdad tripdad is offline
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Default Re: Flopping top FH against quads

i don't know the probability of you hitting a boat against quads, but i do know the probability of you checking in middle position, and the guy behind you also checking, followed by the SMALL BLIND going all in is 0%. (unless the small blind is on the button)

cheers!
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  #6  
Old 09-02-2005, 06:46 PM
cha59 cha59 is offline
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Default Re: Flopping top FH against quads

1) I dont want to calculate it but I'm fairly confident the odds are not much greater than ZERO.

2) I think a call is best preflop, but there was no way you were going to not go broke in this hand. You just got unlucky.

If you play SNG's, try reading and posting hands in the 1-table tournaments forum - but try to avoid posting bad beats. The best discussions and advice on SNG poker anywhere can be found there.

As for the guy calling with his 77, you want people to call with hands like that when you have TT. This is how you take their money in the long run.
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  #7  
Old 09-02-2005, 08:23 PM
LetYouDown LetYouDown is offline
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Default Re: Flopping top FH against quads

If you hold 10-10 and your opponent holds 7-7, the odds of the flop coming 10-7-7 is:

2/C(48,3) or about .01%.

If you hold 10-10 and the flop comes 10-7-7, the odds that your opponent holds 7-7 (possibly more relevant) is:

1/C(47,2) = .09%

It happens...don't beat yourself up about it.
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  #8  
Old 09-03-2005, 11:49 AM
FiReSiStAnT FiReSiStAnT is offline
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Default Re: Flopping top FH against quads

[ QUOTE ]
If you hold 10-10 and your opponent holds 7-7, the odds of the flop coming 10-7-7 is:

2/C(48,3) or about .01%.

If you hold 10-10 and the flop comes 10-7-7, the odds that your opponent holds 7-7 (possibly more relevant) is:

1/C(47,2) = .09%

It happens...don't beat yourself up about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

that dont sound right...
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