#11
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
[ QUOTE ]
Can I spin it off as an image play, or is it just bad in all aspects? [/ QUOTE ] I will get out of line (as usual) and say that imo its not plainly stupid play. Assuming that he plays like that only with AA and KK , KK is twice as likely now. There is now 1000 in the pot and you risk 1650 to win it... Now : 33% (for AA)- your results = 90%*(-1650) + 10% (+2650) = -1220 66% (for KK)- your results = -1650 + (p*2650 + (1-p)*33%*4300) where p is probability of him folding KK to your allin. Break even point is at : (-1/3*1220) + (2/3)(-1650 + (p*2650 + (1-p)*33%*4300) = 0 Which brings us p = 67.9% So if you think that he will fold kings 2 times out of 3 in this spot this play is break even. So yeah that's kinda optimistic but not THAT stupid... Best wishes |
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