K9 from BB $25NL

[prk]

$25NL on Pary 6max. Hero is BB with $56. UTG makes it $1 to go. 2 callers. Hero calls $0.75 with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Pot = $4.25
Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets $2.5. UTG folds, EP1 folds, Button pushes $46. (Button is a maniac who sat down about 10min ago, lost a buy-in, reloaded, got down to $10, and sucked out on a few people with crap cards to get up to $47)

What is Hero's play here??? Easy call or fold?

[jkkkk]

Fold.

[Andrew Fletcher]

I think he has a flush draw or absolute crap. I would call this bet, particularly from a maniac. If he's really got a hand, most players like this guy slowplay the crap out of them.

Get his money while the getting is good.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
$25NL on Pary 6max. Hero is BB with $56. UTG makes it $1 to go. 2 callers. Hero calls $0.75 with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Pot = $4.25
Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets $2.5. UTG folds, EP1 folds, Button pushes $46. (Button is a maniac who sat down about 10min ago, lost a buy-in, reloaded, got down to $10, and sucked out on a few people with crap cards to get up to $47)

What is Hero's play here??? Easy call or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not check-raise this flop? As played, I still think this is probably a call. You are 47% to win even if Maniac has a king with a better kicker.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd 9d 453 45.76 507 51.21 30 3.03 0.473
Ks Qh 507 51.21 453 45.76 30 3.03 0.527

I don't think a maniac would push a set like this. But, if he did, you'd win 30% of the time.

He may have bottom two pair (which you are 50-50 with). He may have a straight draw. He may have a smaller flush draw. He may have air. Who knows?

Your hand is either a solid favorite or coin flip against his range and has the possibility to catch up when Maniac happens to hold something better than TPMK.

[prk]

Thanks for replies!

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Maniac flips over pocket 2's for a rivered set.


Not worried about the results though. I called figuring I was behind anyways.

[wdeadwyler]

nh, w/o reads i fold. If you are confident in your read, good call.

[Andrew Fletcher]

What made you think you were behind? Sucks about the set, but that's poker.