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  #1  
Old 12-31-2005, 10:58 AM
masse75 masse75 is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
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Default 99 flops set, river gets ugly

Sticking with the MP hands, like to see your thoughts on the turn when the board gets really coordinated. And, how going heads-up changes the dynamic.

(Aside: I was glad to get away from Absolute--cashed my 200% bonus and left. Tables are WAY tight as everyone is bonus whoring).

Converted at PokerGeek
Absolute Limit Hold'em Ring - $2/$4 Stakes (8 handed)

Starting Stacks
Seat 1: Big blind ($100)
Seat 2: UTG ($107.25)
Seat 4: UTG+1 ($98.50)
Seat 5: MP (Hero) ($90.75)
Seat 6: LP ($14.75)
Seat 7: CO ($80.25)
Seat 8: Button ($74)
Seat 9: Small blind ($66.12)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, poker, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, LP folds, CO folds, Button folds, Small blind folds, Big blind folds, UTG+1 calls

Flop: (5.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls

Turn: (3.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls

River: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls

Final Pot: $37.25

Results in white below:
<font color="#FFFFFF">UTG+1 has Jc Qh (Two Pairs, queens and jacks)
MP has 9c 9d (Three of a kind, nines)

Outcome: Hero wins $37.25
</font>
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  #2  
Old 12-31-2005, 11:13 AM
HouseCalls HouseCalls is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: New Bern, NC
Posts: 4
Default Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly

*grunch*

Preflop / Flop - good

Turn - yuck; hate the donk bet here but I think you have to cal down. Even if you are behind you have 11 outs (unless vilain holds JJ which he sure has not acted like) to quads or a full house.

River - If villain was on a draw this card completes alot of stright draws and the flush draw. I'd say your chance of still being ahead is 25% or less; with 7.75BB in the pot you have odds to call even if your chance of winning is as low as 12%. . . call.
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  #3  
Old 12-31-2005, 11:50 AM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Posts: 365
Default Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly

Looks ordinary against an unknown. Reads would change the dynamic more than being HU.
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  #4  
Old 12-31-2005, 11:52 AM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Posts: 365
Default Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*

Preflop / Flop - good

Turn - yuck; hate the donk bet here but I think you have to cal down. Even if you are behind you have 11 outs (unless vilain holds JJ which he sure has not acted like) to quads or a full house.

River - If villain was on a draw this card completes alot of stright draws and the flush draw. I'd say your chance of still being ahead is 25% or less; with 7.75BB in the pot you have odds to call even if your chance of winning is as low as 12%. . . call.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's 10 outs to the boat or quads on the turn, and the second club doesn't complete any flush draws, but other than that your post is pretty good.
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  #5  
Old 12-31-2005, 12:58 PM
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Default Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly

So, on the turn we are giving villain automatic credit for KQ. We have a set, I think we have to at least consider a raise here.
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  #6  
Old 12-31-2005, 01:06 PM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Default Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly

[ QUOTE ]
So, on the turn we are giving villain automatic credit for KQ. We have a set, I think we have to at least consider a raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd consider it for about a second. The c/r on the turn at these limits means "you'd better be close to the nuts, 'cuz I am." UNLESS you have a read on the Villan that he'll go nutbag with TP, two-pair or some such.
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  #7  
Old 12-31-2005, 02:23 PM
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Default Re: 99 flops set, river gets ugly

Played well by villian and Hero.
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