2 all ins with 3 people left

How would you deal with a situation where there are three people including you left in a SNG, you have the big stack (4000-6000) and the two other stacks go all in. You have something reasonable like a KJo. Should you call and give yourself the approximate 1/3 chance of winning or wait for a better situation?

[Shilly]

What are the blinds?

sorry, the blinds are in the range of 100-200, 150-300

[illini43]

Well, if you plan on calling with a hand like KJo with two people all-in preflop, I think you are usually up against an ace. The best scenario would be against hands like 55 and Q-10.

I would typically fold with a hand like KJ unless these two smaller stacks have been consistently pushing with any two. Opponents stack sizes help here too.

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
Should you call and give yourself the approximate 1/3 chance of winning or wait for a better situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your approximation of 1/3 chance is pretty high, that would assume that all three of you have an equal chance of winning. But, because there is a push and a call, there is no way your KJo has an equal chance.

Using pokerstove:

All-in: 28.4263 % { AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo } This assumes that this guy is a shorty and pushing a large range of hands.

Call: 48.5113 % {AA-88, AKs-AQs, KQs, AKo-AQo } Assuming this guy needs a premium hand to call.

Your hand: 23.0623 % { KsJh }

6000 chips case:
80% of the time you lose and are now even in chips heads up.
20% you win the tourney.
fold: you're ~3-1 ahead in chips.

4000 case:
80% of the time you lose and are now 2-1 dog in chips.
20% of the time you win.
fold: ~even in chips.

Basically, I think I'm folding this regardless of whether I have 4000 or 6000 chips. If I think I'm better than my opponents I would rather just outplay one of them heads up.

If I don't feel I'm better, than I may take the risk if I have the huge chip lead.

ok I say you had 5500 in chips, 2nd had 1500 and third had 1000. the two small stacks go all in with blinds at 100-200. I think in this situation I would gamble because even if I lost, I would still have 4000 chips.

On the other hand, if one stack was a fair size and could dent you, it might be better to fold.

Even if someone had an ace, the percentages with the kjo still make it a 1/3 situation if the third person had two other cards, like qts.

Im rambling a bit, but what do you think of my logic regarding this situation.

[skipperbob]

It is my opinion that by calling the 2 allins, you give yourself a 75% chance of taking first vs. only 50% if you don't call....These are rough #'s (my style) and my first "on-topic" post since Aug. 3, 2001... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[microbet]

Say stacks are 5000, 2500, 2500, you think you have a 20% chance to win, you are out of the blinds, and you think you are all about equally skilled.

You win 1 out of 5 right away and 2 of the remaining 4, so you win 60%. If you fold, you win 50%.

Pretty easy to see what winning % is $EV neutral and to play around with pokerstove. I'll do that myself tonight. Good post. Thank you. I probably fold here too often. SFB, I think 75% is a bit optimistic, but you are right in general and thanks to you too. I might not have read this post if I wasn't curious about you posting in an on-topic thread.

[skipperbob]

Jay, U nitwit, OP is not 20% to win first hand w/KJ...much higher...prolly 33%...So, 333 hands outa 1000 he takes 1st on 1st hand; 50/50 on remaining 667 = 333...Total = 66% ?

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Jay, U nitwit, OP is not 20% to win first hand w/KJ...much higher...prolly 33%...So, 333 hands outa 1000 he takes 1st on 1st hand; 50/50 on remaining 667 = 333...Total = 66% ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was sorta going with a worse (not worst) scenerio to show it was still good. 33% is wishful thinking though. I played around with pokerstove and would think more like 25%, maybe a bit more.