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#1
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Re: 100/200 blind war
[ QUOTE ]
situation 1: he has a 6 and you bet/call. situation 2: he has an 8 and calls your bet. situation 3: you check he bets the 8 and you win. situation 4: you check and he bets the 6 and you lose. so... E[1+2]= -(2)*.5 + .5*1=-.5 E[3+4]= .5*1 - .5*1=0 [/ QUOTE ] nice post first of all, is E[1 + 2] the average equity of decisions 1 and 2? |
#2
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Re: 100/200 blind war
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] situation 1: he has a 6 and you bet/call. situation 2: he has an 8 and calls your bet. situation 3: you check he bets the 8 and you win. situation 4: you check and he bets the 6 and you lose. so... E[1+2]= -(2)*.5 + .5*1=-.5 E[3+4]= .5*1 - .5*1=0 [/ QUOTE ] nice post first of all, is E[1 + 2] the average equity of decisions 1 and 2? [/ QUOTE ] each set of possibilities is composed of an 8 and a 6. each 1 is 50% so im combining them for simplicity Barron |
#3
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Re: 100/200 blind war
i obviously dont disagree w/ your post as i realize you know much more than me; however could you please explain 1 "flaw" that seems to be in your logic?
If you bet; he needs to be bluffing >12% or so of the time for you to call; so if your bet/calling- he has a hand @ most 88% of the time correct? or would you be calling for metagame reasons? I never think about metagame b/c i dont play limit regularly; but i guess i shouldnt try n make these kinda folds? |
#4
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Re: 100/200 blind war
dude, youll be getting 10:1... the vast majority of online 1/2 players are bluffing here 10% and folding is also bad 4 metagame, sure.
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#5
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Re: 100/200 blind war
[ QUOTE ]
i obviously dont disagree w/ your post as i realize you know much more than me; however could you please explain 1 "flaw" that seems to be in your logic? If you bet; he needs to be bluffing >12% or so of the time for you to call; so if your bet/calling- he has a hand @ most 88% of the time correct? or would you be calling for metagame reasons? I never think about metagame b/c i dont play limit regularly; but i guess i shouldnt try n make these kinda folds? [/ QUOTE ] sure. the cost of calling and being completely wrong in that he will never ever bluff is the difference between your expectation if he bluffs 8% or 12% or whatever and the expectation if he never bluffs multiplied by the cost of the bet. the cost of folding in this spot in a blind war given the previous action 4handed 1/2 is much larger than the money you save by folding. you will face many more shots taken at you as you will have labelled yourself a folder. doing this, even the poor players or the normally semi-passive ones will cause all of the players to put you to tougher decisions than you would normally face forcing you into potentially larger mistakes than the X%*1bb mistake you'd make by calling. this is the way i think about it and i could definately be wrong, but in high limit poker, id choose to play against an easy to read person rather than a decent playing maniac any day of the week. Barron |
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