Checking and Calling my way to millions

[tongni]

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After taking this line up till the river I am always afraid that they are going to check through so I donk it and usually get raised and always lose so maybe thers something to be said for just check calling. Is he value betting KJ/KT?

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I would imagine he bets a Q here quite a bit unless there's a lot of history. Looks like a pretty good hand.

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basically what im saying is that i think R! should be checking this river with Ax and isn't likely to be holding a hand that loses to TT or JJ so he should be checking down hands that lose to AT.


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?????????????

[Spicymoose]

Isn't KJ, QJ, QT, KT somewhat likely holdings for villain? Wouldn't he valuebet the river? Or is he too likely to cap these preflop?


I like this play. I think I normally just bet the turn without thinking much, and might get put into a really tough spot when he raises me.

[bicyclekick]

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you turn bet didnt get raised so this looks like following through with the plan to me - folding the river with top pair not no kicker isnt going to happen unless i know something a lot better than i'm not a favourite to win

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

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The turn bet was made by the villain, not the hero.

[stoxtrader]

nice hand.

I think calling PR and playing fit or fold also has merits. Would you also 3 bet ATo?

[stripsqueez]

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The turn bet was made by the villain, not the hero.

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the drugs do that to me although this time they failed to kick in

i didnt mean to imply that betting the turn is the way to go - i dont mind check/calling the turn - it could be not knowing what to do if your raised

i chose to not bet the turn so the hand got a bit strange because that isnt happening most of the time - at least it isnt common when i actually have top pair not no kicker - i could wonder about whether my guy has a hand worse than mine given his actions to date more than something like 20% of the time - after all he can play so he knows that i should have at least this much like all the time - i will worry that i'm a chook when he turns over AQo or some such rock

i could go there or i could just figure its top pair not no kicker played a bit strange and press call

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[phish]

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He has to put you on a big Ace or PP after your preflop 3-bet. He knows he can't bluff you out of an Ace on this river and that you would have folded (or would fold) a PP on the turn/river. If he sees your turn check-call as a picked up flush draw then he knows his hand is no good. Basically, it seems that Raise! has no reason to bet this river unless he's fairly strong.

I think it's a check-fold.

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I think schneid's play up to now is most indicative of a pair of JJ or TT. Any 'good' hand-reader would value bet an Ax or even KJ. Folding here would be horrible.

[TStoneMBD]

you think schneids would check call this river with TT or JJ? you think the opponent thinks schneids will call this river with TT or JJ?

[phish]

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you think schneids would check call this river with TT or JJ? you think the opponent thinks schneids will call this river with TT or JJ?

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Perhaps not, but in which case his opponent should be playing 66 the exact same way.

I'm not saying you should always call the river w/ JJ here, but given that you have much better than JJ here, you can now beat Ax, KJ, and a 'good hand-reader's' bluff against what he likely perceives to be JJ or TT.

Also, a couple of other points:

1. This looks very much like a classic way behind or way ahead situation in which a check-call strategy works best since it maximizes your win when ahead, and minimizes your loss when behind. Check call does not mean check fold, because there is a decent chance you are ahead.

2. Your pre-flop play should be coordinated with post-flop play. If you're going to reraise OOP with AT, and don't go to showdown when you hit an A, playing in a semi-short game, then you shouldn't have reraise to begin with. It's not like the board is showing a four liner or four flush.

3. I don't like the metagame image of a fold here, especially since you have a hand that will be good more than 15% of the time, given his most likely read on you. Because he will now in the future be betting his 66 here when you do have JJ.

[phish]

Oops. I used 66 in an example above, not realizing the river was a 6. Meant to type something like 77 instead. But you know what i'm saying.

[Spicymoose]

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Your pre-flop play should be coordinated with post-flop play. If you're going to reraise OOP with AT, and don't go to showdown when you hit an A, playing in a semi-short game, then you shouldn't have reraise to begin with.

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Although I think you bring up some good points, I think this one is awful. That statement is so general that it really doesn't help. There are often times when you will hit your A, yet you shouldn't see the showdown for a variety of reasons.