Am I Wearing a Skirt or a Kilt?

Scotch78 · #1 12-21-2005, 07:47 PM

MP2 is 15/8.6/40(1.9/.9/.5) (VP$IP/PFR/WSD(AF-F/AF-T/AF-R)) after 266 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero . . .

 MP2 probably has me bitch-slapped (AK and AJ being the exceptions), but peeling another card might be marginally +EV. I think it all depends on whether I'm giving or taking the implied odds. Since I'll be getting over 10-1 on a river call with TPTK, I'll probably be losing two bets even if I don't improve. And when I do spike an out, I could still easily split or lose. Who agrees with folding?

Scott

QTip · #2 12-21-2005, 08:23 PM

I think it's more like overalls that have a pinkish hue.

I like 3 betting the flop here, putting preasure on MP1 and keeping in command of the hand.

#3 12-21-2005, 08:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's more like overalls that have a pinkish hue.

[/ QUOTE ]
AND frilly lace sleeves.

SNOWBALL138 · #4 12-22-2005, 05:57 AM

Purdy pink panties.

Call down. If you are beaten, you almost have the odds for a gutshot, and if you aren't beaten then folding is horrible. Calling rules.

There's 1 AA, 3 QQ, 6 AQ, and 2 TTs
aa and QQ can be discounted somewhat.

There's 6 AK and 8 AJ combos. There's no reason to discount either of these hands.
So, you are actually losing less than half of the time, and you are getting odds.

Webster · #5 12-22-2005, 08:10 AM

I'd be reraising the flop and betting the turn - you can't put him on AA or QQ can you? 266 hands is not that many to really put a guy on pockets. Heck I've play 266 hands at 10% VPIP which is 8% lower then my average.

You played the hand like you wanted to fold instead of wanting to win!

Bill C · #6 12-22-2005, 09:47 AM

I like the 3-bet the flop, lead the turn line.

And I agree with QTip about putting some pressure on MP-1, who just keeps check-calling. Let him face two cold on the flop.
Your turn check sets up a nearly mandatory bet by villain, so when it comes I don't think you should be scared off by it. Things might look a little differently if you had been more aggressive earlier.
Given the realities of where you are in the hand, you should probably call. But since your hand is too good to fold, a raise here might also be good, and would give you some info, put some pressure on MP-1 and perhaps set up a free showdown.

Just my $.02 worth...
bill

#7 12-22-2005, 12:46 PM

I'd call. You have TPTK and a gutshot and MP1 might come along as well.

tolbiny · #8 12-23-2005, 12:10 AM

Don't fold. The pot is plenty big enough to call for your gutshot/2 pair outs.
Those who advocate three betting, I am not sure i agree. The three bet here lets him get away from KQ QJ real easy, while it sets you up for the call and then pop the turn and you end up putting in 5-9 sbs when behind AQ or A9. If you were confident enough of your read on this guy you could pull a modified WA/WB line and call the turn and then donk the river, but you would have to be sure you could fold to a riase safely, as the pot is pretty good sized here. i think calling down is best.

Scotch78 · #9 12-23-2005, 12:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you were confident enough of your read on this guy you could pull a modified WA/WB line

[/ QUOTE ]

I was at least 50% sure he had AQ or 99.

Scott

tolbiny · #10 12-23-2005, 12:21 AM

Don't forget that you have 10 outs against A9 and 7 against AQ.