Pocket 2s pre-flop vs 3 opponents

[theblitz]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Hero ($35.45)
SB ($295.44)
BB ($28.95)
UTG ($50.46)
MP ($24.65)
CO ($28)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1</font>, MP calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $4</font>, UTG calls $3, MP calls $3, Hero ?

UTG is a madman at the table. Rasing about 40% of the time pre-flop and calling many pre-flop raises only to check-fold the flop.
MP is running at 50%/8%.
No real data on on BB.

I don't have the odds against the small stacks but do have against the maniac. However, the chances of stacking him are not so good as he seems to fold.

On the other hand, I did catch him attempting a bluff on the turn earlier in the session.

[DJ Sensei]

Easy, easy call. Getting almost 5-1 already on your call, you don't have to make up much more value with your implied odds (which most certainly are there). Additionally, a reraise out of the blinds indicates a particularly strong hand (one which you are very likely to stack if you hit your set)

on a side note, "SB ($295.44)" is that a typo, or just a mad nasty deep stack?

[theblitz]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy, easy call. Getting almost 5-1 already on your call, you don't have to make up much more value with your implied odds (which most certainly are there). Additionally, a reraise out of the blinds indicates a particularly strong hand (one which you are very likely to stack if you hit your set)

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
For some reason I folded only to see a 2 come on the flop.
Would have stacked 3 players.

[ QUOTE ]

on a side note, "SB ($295.44)" is that a typo?

[/ QUOTE ]
Nope. It's for real.

[4_2_it]

Multiway you should always make this call. HU is where you need to consider stack sizes and evaluate the likelihood of your opponent paying you off.

[GrunchCan]

I'm not sure you should always make the call multiway. Implied odds matter even multiway, and if your opponents all have short stacks making this call isn'ty likely to be +EV. If the shortioes don't hit (and they probably won't), they won't pay you off. If you do hit your set, you'll end up only stacking 1 opponent usually.

[4_2_it]

But multiway you are already getting 4-5 to 1 on your initial call. You don't need much action after you hit to make that call profitable.

What am I missing, Grunch, I admit I am Christmas shopping on the net so maybe I am just not focused here.......

[theblitz]

Surely I am facing the possibility of being stacked by one of the others.
I am getting increased odds but I am also greatly increading the chance that I will get stacked.
Even though I do have more than the 2 small stacks I will still end up down if one of them beats me even if I do beat the big stack.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
Surely I am facing the possibility of being stacked by one of the others.
I am getting increased odds but I am also greatly increading the chance that I will get stacked.
Even though I do have more than the 2 small stacks I will still end up down if one of them beats me even if I do beat the big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't worry about set over set here. If you don't spike a 2 on the flop you do not put another cent into the pot.

[GrunchCan]

I don't know if you're missing anything; I could be wrong.

But let's try an example with 2 short stacks.

Hero: 100 BB
MP: 10 BB
LP 10 BB

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero calls 1 BB. Some folds. MP raises to 4 BB. Some folds. LP calls 4 BB. Blinds fold. Hero ... ?

Pot is 10.5 BB, offering 3:10.5 expressed. For simplicity, assume that if Hero calls he will win 10% of the time (I claim this is a valid assumption -- readers are invited to confirm it). Also assume that MP will get is alll in the middle 100% of the time, and LP will also get it in 25% of the time.

EV = {0.10 * [10.5 + 6 + (.25 * 6)]} + (0.90 * -3) = 1.8 - 2.7 = -0.9

Which makes this call -EV.

Assuming that the PFR will always get all-in no matter how many opponents he has (not a valid assumption), and coldcalling opponents will get all-in 25% of the time, how many coldcalling opponents do we need for our call to be breakeven?

EV = 0.10 * [10.5 + 6 + (n * .25 * 6)] + (0.90 * -3)

...setting EV to 0 and solving for n...

0 = .1(16.5 + 1.5n) - 2.7
2.7 = 1.65 + .15n
2.7 - 1.65 = .15n
(1.05/0.15) = n
n = 7

So if the opponents all have an average stack of 10BB at the beginning of the hand and PF coldcallers will get all-in 25% of the time postflop, we need 7 coldcallers to make this call +EV.

This is kind of an extreme example, but it illustrates the point that I was trying to make: there is no always in poker. The formula could be generalized to make the chance that the coldcallers will get all-in and the average stack variables, but I have to get back to work. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]