Winrate Theory

[LearnedfromTV]

One problem with this "worst possible loss rate" concept is that it implies that whatever is true for 10/20 NL is also true for 10/20 limit. that is, the "worst possible player" as you define him would lose exactly the same at a limit table by sitting out every hand as at a NL table.

If that number made positive is the highest sustainable winrate in NL, why isn't it also the highest sustainable winrate in limit? Nothing in your analysis is particular to NL. I think it is just a coincidence that NL win rates are in the same neighborhood as the number you calculated.

The escalting blinds (6 BB/58BB) comparison quantifying the size of NL games relative to limit games is a good one, and germane to the winrate discussion, as is the size of mistakes your opponents tend to make.

[not_da_nizzles]

It's very simple to come up with a strategy where you can sustainably lose more than 7.5PTBB/100. You have to play pretty badly to do it but it's not hard. (ie: fold all 'good' hands pre-flop, call-down or bet only when you have nothing)

mj