Equity and pot odds question: Do I understand this?

[fluxrad]

Would it be relatively correct to say: Equity tells you when to bet an raise. Pot odds tells you when to call and when to fold.

There was another post that I completely screwed up so I'm trying to make sure I get this (i.e.):

You hold Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB.

3 people limp, and you check it.

Flop: (4SB) <font color="blue">(4 players)</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

What's a good way to determine if you have enough equity to value-bet? Do you say "Well, I have 12 outs to make a straight or flush, meaning I'm good here more than 1/4th of the time so I should bet."

Let's say this pot is 3-way. Do you still have enough equity to bet this flop?

One of my major problems is figuring out when and where I should be thinking about equity. I'm hoping this might help clear it up.

[Benoit]

Is this limit? If you're willing to call a bet on a draw, then you should be willing to make a bet on a draw. That's how I see it anyway. Maybe everybody else missed their flop and has no draw, so a bet will win the pot right there.

If you check, you're more likely to have induced a bluff and won't know where you stand, and you'll end up giving a free card if everyone checks when they would have folded from a bet.

[illunious]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you say "Well, I have 12 outs to make a straight or flush, meaning I'm good here more than 1/4th of the time so I should bet."

[/ QUOTE ]

With a fantastic draws like this, count 3 Qs as an out 3 way or headsup, and 4 way+ you have great call odds on a 12 outer, so it's usually correct to bet/raise the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
meaning I'm good here more than 1/4th of the time so I should bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should probably think like this: "meaning I'm 1.2:1 to make my draw by the river"

[theRealMacoy]

[ QUOTE ]
Would it be relatively correct to say: Equity tells you when to bet an raise. Pot odds tells you when to call and when to fold.

There was another post that I completely screwed up so I'm trying to make sure I get this (i.e.):

You hold Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB.

3 people limp, and you check it.

Flop: (4SB) <font color="blue">(4 players)</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

What's a good way to determine if you have enough equity to value-bet? Do you say "Well, I have 12 outs to make a straight or flush, meaning I'm good here more than 1/4th of the time so I should bet."

Let's say this pot is 3-way. Do you still have enough equity to bet this flop?

One of my major problems is figuring out when and where I should be thinking about equity. I'm hoping this might help clear it up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok with 12 outs you have approximately %50 chance of making your hand by the river (roughly 2% for each out times 4). Your equity right now is %50 of the pot. Thus determing whether to bet for value depends upon what share of the betting you will contribute. Against 2 opponent you are contributing %33 of the betting, whereas against 3 opponent you account for %25 of the betting. Now compare your equity with your betting contribution. If your equity is greater than your share then bet for value. For example with %50 pot equity you can bet for value against 2 oppoents (e.g. your overlay is %50 - %33 which is %13....overlay is your value bet).

it could also be said that you can bet for value even against one player with %50 pot equity.

Now lets say that you don't hit the turn. Now you have an approx %26 chance (12 outs times 2...then plus two) of hitting your hand. You have less pot equity thus you would adjust whether to bet for value or not. Against 4 opponents you could still bet for value.

Hope this helps,
cheers the Real Macoy

[AKQJ10]

fluxrad:

It looks to me like your understanding is accurate. However, if it's easier for you to conceptualize, Buzz on the O8 forum talks about "fresh money pot odds". It's the same idea, to wit if you raise and get three callers you're being offered 3:1 in fresh money, so it's only a correct value bet if you're 3:1 or better to make your draw.

Benoit:

You are correct that betting a draw as a semibluff may be correct far more often than it would be if it were strictly a value bet. This depends directly on the probability of all your opponents folding. If you're in a game where it's virtually impossible to envision all opponents folding to a bet, then all that matters is whether the odds merit a value bet. I was going to make up a numerical example, but it would have to be oversimplified. At any rate, the point is, that even say an extra 10% chance of winning the pot uncontested can make betting as a semibluff far better than check/calling.

But betting as a semibluff isn't the same motive as betting for value, although one bet might have both purposes. So in essence you're both right.

[vqchuang]

How come I can't use pot equity when determining whether or not I should be calling a bet? If pot equity is the % of chips I should be able to get out of the pot in the long run, if someone bets 20% of the pot and my equity is 40%, isn't that reason to call?

Thank you for your time.

[richrf]

It would be incorrect to count outs without also discounting outs. That is how "bad beats" happen. If you are playing against an AK then a Q would be deadly. Any 9 would help a Kx more than it would help you. I would play carefully, since it is likely one of your opponents will negate one of your outs.

[Benoit]

Thanks for the word, AKQJ10. I also said that because I've been playing more NL hold em tourneys then anything else. For example if I hold 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the flop is j[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then I'd probably bet half the pot. This way someone like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] doesn't have the pot odds to continue. If the turn and river were hearts, then the folded hand would have had the nut flush, but betting on the flop would make him fold because it was a long shot that it would go runner-runner.