Need a second opinion...

[Woolygimp]

I posted this in the MSNL forum and the basic consensus was, "Call any raise with any pocket pair as long as it obeys the 5/10 rule." Well, the situation I proposed was you and villain are sitting at a full table with 10x the buy-in ($2000 at 1/2).
You limp in EP with 22 and he raises to 50x the big blind ($100). The replies said this is a standard call... as it obeys the 5%/10% rule.

<font color="red"> As higher limit players I'm prone to respect your opinion on this matter, but do you think this is a correct call? </font>

You lose almost no equity folding, and its going to be much harder for you to stack him with the implied odds you need to make this a correct call --considering the highest probability of someone getting stacked is you if you both hit sets or similiar outcomes.

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Due to their strength and inconspicuous nature, Sets are by far and large the cash hand in No-Limit holdem. However, do we overestimate their implied odds?

It is common belief that it is standard to call a large raise
with small pocket pairs, betting that your opponent will pay with his entire stack should you hit (as long as it obeys the 5/10 rule). If so, is it also standard to call large raises with small suited connectors? They work on the same basic concept.

Very few people are capable of playing small PP against their opponent unimproved (a pre-flop raiser), profitabily.
They can only do so with multiple solid reads, something most of us online types don't have the pleasure of having.

That said, we are relying only on the equity that will come from our hand should we improve.
We will improve 1 in 7.5x, against an opponent who will improve around 1 in 3 (AQ/AK/KQ) OR 1 in 7.5x like us.

So to call a 5x BB raise PF, we will need to make 7.5 * 5 or 35 BigBlinds on average each time we do hit. At a 1/2 game, thats about 70 dollars.

It is my opinion that 35 big blinds or more everytime you hit is unsustainable. That's without factoring reverse implied odds. I don't know the chance of a person raising with 99-AA, but I'm sure one of you could post it in a reply. He also has 1:7.5 to improve and assuming he's raising with a pocket pair, 2% of the time he's going to stack with his higher set you unless you hit quads (%5 of that time).

Thats not including the times you hit your set and he folds because he missed. Sure you're going to take down his pot (and continuation bet) when this occurs, but your still not getting your +35big blinds on average that you need to make a profit.

This is going to happen when an ace hits vs his 1010-KK, and he doesn't make a pair with this overcards.

However this all said, I do think its profitable to call a large raise should there be around 2 or more callers in front of you.

I'm not that great of a mathematician so someone else could probaly crunch the numbers better than I.

(Edit)
To everyone who points to the PT stats of 22-77 being in the green, You're forgetting about the times that you play these hands with limps/in blinds/smaller raises.

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