BIG semibluff, thoughts?

[Mercman572]

This play is very read dependent I think, so here is the read I had. Villain is super agro and likes to make moves, stats are 60/20/3.5 after 65 hands. The other confrontation went like this:

Hero has AJ off in MP3, 1 limped to him and makes it 4BB. Button calling station calls, Villain in BB calls.

POT 3.5, Flop AA4 rainbow. BB checks, hero checks, Button Raises $1, Villain Raises 7. Hero calls, button folds.

TURN 8D 2checks (putting a 2 flush) ($18 in pot)
RIVER 6D Villain bets $6, hero calls
RESULT: Villain has 97 os



Party Poker (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>. Hero raises 4BB. Calling station calls, Villain from last hand is button, calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero bets 2, calling station calls 2, villain raises 10
Hero calls 34.25 (All-In), CO folds.

Final Pot:

Normally i would fold here, since it looks like a small flush, trips os somehting like that. But given villains other play with no regards to an overcaller, (this time the calling station), and his tendency to make moves, I thought I wasn't sitting too badly here. My thoughts were along this line:
1. I checked a made hand vs villain only 2 or 3 hands ago, a bet might make him think I'm bluffing and he could be on what he thinks is a resteal.
2. He could be on a worse flush draw with a piece of the board
3. Its likely he may call OR fold a worse hand here, but will probably call with a hand I have crushed (KQ 1 club, etc.)
Push or fold here?

[Xizor]

Push is good. I think your thoughts are good too.
I think there is a big chance he is on a draw.

[Marlow]

This gives him credit for thinking, which he prolly isn't doing much of at 60 VPIP:

[ QUOTE ]
1. I checked a made hand vs villain only 2 or 3 hands ago, a bet might make him think I'm bluffing and he could be on what he thinks is a resteal.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the push. In fact, your hand could already be ahead. If not, you have a reasonable number of outs. Folding is out of the question given villian's stats, and calling is horrible. It's not a comfortable play, but I do think that pushing is best here.

BTW... good for you for not considering a smaller raise here. A lot of players make that mistake...

Marlow
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
This gives him credit for thinking, which he prolly isn't doing much of at 60 VPIP:


[/ QUOTE ]

haha good point, I gave him some credit for the checkraise for the paired ace previously, since that does look like a represented ace...but I forgot that he THEN tried to represent a made flush when there was no draw on the flop in that same hand, AND made it against a hand that could call the flop checkraise

[Mercman572]

Seeing that villain played 79 to a raise the other hand, any concerns with anyone that villain is again playing a SC or 1 gapper and he hit the board harder than I anticipated, or does this happen too infrequently with my flush outs to worry about?