Thumbs up or down on this hand

[Homer315]

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Your assuming his raising hand had to have contained an ace then, right? Is he that predictable? You made my point, you showed all of your aggression before the ace showed up. By checking that river, you may as well have sent up flares saying, I had a pair that is less than aces now, but I am scared, so bet your pocket sixes and watch me fold!

I said if he calls, it's unlikely you're winning, but do you really want to fold that river for one bet? That takes quite a narrow read that the guy only raises (or bets the river) with an ace. If that's the case, then, sure it's correct to check/fold.

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I think vibesman makes a good point that any straight draw is going to bluff at me on the river. The question is how of does he have KT? I think TT may also fold on this river, but still that is pretty close because I showed my aggresion on the flop when TT was an overpair. I could easily be c/r that flop with 9 high. There is no way he is folding QQ or KK. And if he caught a jack on the turn I am also assuming he would call the river bet and if the river didn't come the ace, I might be worried about a raise on the river too. Either way, this is my reasoning more or less, why I think it is pretty safe to c/f this.

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Look, it's definitely a close decision, but the reality is that for all intents and purposes, the only way you're taking down this pot is with a bet and his fold. If he calls, you're probably losing. if it's checked through, there are few hands you're beating other than KQ. If you check and he bets, you're folding, right? I think a bet wins this pot at least 12-15% of the time, which is all you need for it to be +EV.