AKs vs. Crafty LAG and 9 high flop

[Phil2]

Live 2/5 NL; 7 handed.

Villian likes to mix it up and is pretty deep with about $3500. I bought in for the $500 max and am just under $600 after playing for about an hour. Villian hasn't showed down much but usually wins showdowns...seems to pick up smallish pots often; plays a lot of hands but gets out when he should.

Hero is one off the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

UTG folds, UTG2 folds, <font color="red">villian raises to $20, </font> <font color="red">hero raises to $80,</font> button folds, blinds fold, villian quickly calls.

Flop: 2 players, ($167)
8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian bets $300. Hero...?

I don't think calling is right, definately move in or fold, yes? I am pretty sure he has something like A 10 or A Q, maybe even KJ or KQ. It is possible, but I son't see AA or KK. This is a nice bet, but I feel it is definately designed to get me out immediately. Thoughts?

[exeph]

Why are you even thinking about calling? You honestly put him on a middling ace?? I'd guess two pair or top or middle set is more likely

[halis123456789]

You wouldn't happen to play in St. Louis would you?

-Halis

[spahk]

calling and moving in aren't that different, as you don't have enough left to even make a min-raise here. i don't think you have much fold-equity. is that why villain chose 300, or have you seen him make this flop overbet before? have you ever seen his pf raise be re-raised before? what is your table image like? does he put you on an overpair? why isn't he check-raising you if he has a real hand? how long did he think before he chose that bet size?

i think you should go with your read and push, but i might think differently depending on how you answer those questions.

[chuddo]

he obviously isn't folding much here and may have blown it out and bet half your stack just to let you know here.

he also may have made this bet with a set of 8's or 9's, knowing he wouldn't get that much off of you if you had AK, and that you would get it in there if you are holding an overpair.

i don't think this is an ideal spot to be getting the money in and fold.

[creedofhubris]

Why are you even thinking about playing on?

He's going to call you if you move in, and he's going to be ahead. There is no question in my mind about either of these points.