When to fold AA

[Peter-23]

MP2 is semi-loose and aggressive.
BB is semi-lose but not very aggressive.
Hero is MP3

prima $1/$2 limit
Preflop 9 players. Hero is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 fold, MP2 bet, Hero raise, 3 fold, BB call, MP2 raise, Hero cap, BB call, MP2 call
(12.5 SB)
Flop 3 players. J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB bet, MP2 call, Hero raise, BB raise, MP2 call, Hero call.
(10.75 BB)
Turn 3 players. 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB bet, MP2 raise, Hero call, BB raise, MP2 cap

The pot is big but is this not a clear fold?

(is there any converter out there for prima hands?)

[aK13]

I would cap the flop.

Turn fold looks OK to me.

[Eeegah]

Ick. MP2 could realistically have KK (or even AA) here, but a set is a real possibility; BB looks like he has either 2 pair or a set; I can't imagine him going this aggro with a pair of queens after a preflop cap. You're being asked to put in 2/20.75, or about 9.6% of the pot, but really this is going to get worse as it looks like we're going to be calling a couple more on the river (and if we're calling this we'll definitely have to see it through).

So the question is, how likely is he to have two pair instead of a set? I dunno the answer to this, but if he has two pair then we've got 8 outs to beat him with either aces up or a set, while another 4 cards kick our ass when we get 2 pair and he gets a boat. Meanwhile if either of them has a set then we're effectively drawing dead, but again it doesnt look like your opponents are going to let you see the river cheaply.

To be honest I really don't know the answer here, but it smells like a fold to me. I'm more interested in hearing others' opinions on this hand rather than giving my own ramblings here though [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Fantam]

BB appears to have most likely been betting and raising the flop with 2 pair, such as QJ. A set with 33 is also a possibility.

MP2 limp/3-betting preflop suggests that he might have had AA or KK. However, I would not have expected him to just call on the flop with those hands. When MP2 raises on the turn, the most likely explanation seems to be that the 7 helped his hand. Therefore the most likely hand that he might also have 3-bet preflop with (being loose and agressive) now seems to be 77, and that he just made his set on the turn.

If it was likely that you were only behind to 2 pair on the turn, then I think that it would have been correct to call for the chance to improve to a better 2 pair or set by the river.

However as it seems that there is a reasonable chance that you are behind to 1 or maybe even 2 sets, then folding to the turn raise makes sense. I would have felt inclined to fold to MP2's first turn raise.

[aces_dad]

Was there really 4 bets/raises preflop? The limit sites I've played cap preflop bets/raises at 3. I ask because I wanted to make sure what MP2 did preflop.

I'm not convinced the second time around you're looking at an easy fold on the turn. You're getting offered something like 10:1 with 2 outs to your nut set and 'other' outs to aces up.

The other part is what is tricky. MP2's preflop/flop actions could easily be his attempted slowplay with a large PP. It's BB who I'm scared of; if he's got a set you're heavily behind but he could also have 2 pair wihch give you up to 6 outs to A's up to beat him.

Anyway I'm not yet convinced you're behind a set so if you're calling the first 2 on the turn I'm calling the last two here.

UI and 2 to you on the river, fold this time.

[pif]

to me it looks like u against KK and AQ, u should call all the way till the showdown.