PLO $100 nut low + 2nd pair

[GooperMC]

$100 PL Omaha Hi/Lo (9 handed)

Hero ($98)
BB ($142.15)
UTG ($99.70)
UTG+1 ($260.27)
MP1 ($29.95)
MP2 ($20)
LP1 ($97)
LP2 ($284.47)
CO ($110.90)
OTB ($52.30)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">(4 folds)</font>, LP2 calls [$1], <font color="#666666">(2 folds)</font>, Hero calls [$0.50]

Flop: <font color="#009933">($2.85)</font> 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets [$2.85]</font>, BB calls [$2.85], LP2 folds

Turn: <font color="#009933">($8.3)</font> 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets [$8.30].</font>
<font color="#FF0000">BB raises [$33.20].</font>
Hero??

Opponent was a bit of a fish (VP$IP 76, WtSD 42, W$SD 50, TotalAgg .49, PFR 10).

Do you lead the turn? If you did lead the turn what do you do with the CR?

This is a tought decision. I would just call and see what happens on the river. Here is the thing: there is a good chance that u r splitting already (it seems like he has 89, 45 or even A2 as well). So if he has a 89 and no other 2 low cards then u are already splitting and there is no real point becasue he wont fold. If he has 45, he probably wont be folding and could counterfeit ur hand. If he has a 10 (WCS) then what are you hoping for on the river. Its only a 9 that ur hoping for which is 2 outs. He could also have a A210x and then ur going to get quartered and you could be in some trouble. I take the safe passive route here and just call. Maybe u hit a miracle card somehow and quarter him. I think this is a call or maybe even fold if you have a good read on the guy and think that he might be quartering you.
I think you should have lead out, but not bet pot. That way you keep the pot small so if you do get quartered u dont have to worry. I bet 1/2 pot and then call the raise probably and see what comes on the river. By betting $4 instead of 8 u can decrease spot significantly through turn &amp; river.

[TGoldman]

Looks good so far. I play it the exact same way. After being raised on the turn, I would consider folding if my PT stats on the villain pegged him as a weak-tightie. Otherwise, you're most likely splitting with a straight. So I would smooth call the turn-raise and then jam any spade or if the board pairs. That may be able to get villain to fold his non-nut high. Of course, if you get counterfeited you'll have to fold if villain pots the river.

On second thought, I don't think folding the turn is terrible against this type of player, but the other approach is more fun. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Wolffink]

I'd fold here.

This seems to be the textbook case of possibly putting in a lot more money, only to get, at best, half of it back. And there's a significant chance you'll be quartered--or counterfeited. Fold and get on to the next hand.

What will you do if he raises the pot on the river? You're in the same sucky situation as in the turn.

And with only the nut low, out of position, I think you should either check the turn or bet less than the pot. Put yourself in your opponent's shoes--what would you like to see your opponent do? Also if you do call in these situations, you're setup to get quartered and/or counterfeited on later hands.

Folding cannot be wrong here. You have no chance to scoop.

Possibly you might be able to bluff the pot on the river. That might be a reason for calling, but I dont think it switches a fold to a call.

[GooperMC]

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And there's a significant chance you'll be quartered--or counterfeited

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There are only 6 cards in the deck that counterfeit me (less if he is also playing A2) so I wouldn't call that signigicant. Also against A2 with 2 random cards I am actually ahead.

[ QUOTE ]
What will you do if he raises the pot on the river

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If I pot the river it will put me all in, so this really isn't a worry.

[ QUOTE ]
Folding cannot be wrong here. You have no chance to scoop.

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If he folds I scoop. Also there is a reasonable chance that I am ahead for the high if he has A2.

I am guessing he has 45 so there are tons of cards that I can bluff on the river
- Any spade
- Any board pair
- Any 4 or 5
Compare that to the amount of times that I get counterfeit and I think it is close.

I agree that folding is an option and not a bad one; however, it really isn't that cut and dry.