20/40 Live hand I played

[cero_z]

Hey mikech,

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even with his big draw he's at best 3-to-1, the pot's not giving him enough to call your push.


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I think this is wrong; even if he's up against a set, he has 13 outs, which is ~ 2.5 to 1 (33:13). So, with them both putting in bets of 240, 400, and 1200 up to the point of Jeremy's push (~2200 more), there's 5900 in the pot, with 2200 for Marcus to call, or 2.7 to 1--calling a push is at least slightly right (vs. less than a set it becomes more correct).

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i would've checked the turn in his spot, with the intention of c/r'ing all-in if you bet.

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Now there's a line I can live with, especially since a good reader can presumably differentiate between a pair and a set betting 1200 on that relatively dry board. If Jeremy had even 300 less, though, I'd say he was too shallow to try c/r'ing him off AQ.

[BIgMc]

Cool post. Liked your logic. I think you played the hand well, and am surprised you weren't excited to move in on the turn. I've played against aggro players that like to make large bets with AA, KK. But I don't see him betting the flop with that big of a hand considering your style.

[mikech]

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I think this is wrong; even if he's up against a set, he has 13 outs, which is ~ 2.5 to 1

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you're right cero, the 3:1 was a brainfart by me. esp since he could have up to 15 outs, which would make him way better than 3:1.

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Now there's a line I can live with, especially since a good reader can presumably differentiate between a pair and a set betting 1200 on that relatively dry board. If Jeremy had even 300 less, though, I'd say he was too shallow to try c/r'ing him off AQ.

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yeah, i think a line like this, c/r-pushing the turn after a big pf raise and flop bet, is often AA/KK, and so it's a good way to represent AA/KK. jeremy would still be deep enough after a turn bet that it would be pretty tough for him to call w/o a set.

[BobboFitos]

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esp since he could have up to 15 outs, which would make him way better than 3:1.

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mike, a neat rule of thumb is with 15 outs you're typically 2:1 on the next card to hit, which then means, you're correct in calling a pot bet. (52-7=45, 15 to 30, and pot bet 2:1... making it all EV neutral, then implied odds hwen you hit!)

Thats actually (linking this, by no means a thread hijak) why I felt AZK's fold w/ his near 15out draw to be a bad fold, as although he's not drawing to the nuts, MOST of his outs are USUALLY clean, AND he was getting much better then 2:1. (3:1, in fact, with a little bit of stacks to spare!)

[PGarlic]

Thanks for the replies. I agree with your logic Cero. I think I gave villain too much credit on how solid his read was on me. Like I said, at the time we've never played each other shorthanded before and only a few hands otherwise. He did know I was playing tight though.

I remember thinking that if villain check raised the turn I was gonna cry. I had been playing passively though, so there was no guarantee that I would bet the turn. Villain probably thought it was very likely that I would check through on the turn and river in hopes of a cheap showdown.