Tourney hand, cash game hypothetical

[cjmewett]

This was presented to me as a tournament hand, and some debate ensued re: how the hand should be played in a cash game. I've converted to units appropriate to $1/$2. Obviously the stacks are gonna be short for cash game discussions, but it shouldn't affect the math.

Villain in MP has $50. Hero covers.

SB posts
BB posts
Hero (UTG+1) open-limps with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Two more limpers, including button, blinds call

FLOP ($12)
9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero leads for $16, one fold, button pushes for $48, folded around to hero. $32 to call, $76 in pot. Hero's action?

Intuitively I said clear fold, but I ran the numbers and figured a close call (need ~65%ish certainty that villain hasn't already filled to be profitable). I coulda messed up the math, though. Let's not consider the action up to this point, either; it's not mine and I don't agree with it, so you're preaching to the choir.

If somebody could run out the math on this I'd be appreciative. I know it's a very basic question, but I'm trying to prove a point.