AA-rag OOP vs. deep stack and short stacks

[joewatch]

[ QUOTE ]
what kind of player is MP2? a reg stack who just lost a big hand or a short stack that tries to get all in preflop.
i think MP2 has AA, he minraises because he wants everyone to stay in and has a feeling Villian will repot.

but even so, you have to push here because you are dominating any other big pair and not worse than 40/60 against a strong wrap

[/ QUOTE ]

MP2 and MP3 were just bad Party monkeys.

[liquid]

Absolutely push. Even if shorty has AAxx, the main pot is no longer your main concern. LAG is looking to isolate (although his bet size is puzzling) and you have an excellent opportunity to build a big side pot w/good equity.

Reminded me of this'n from last month:

$100 PLO
Seat 5: LAG (Button, $164.70)
Seat 7: Hero (SB, $144.25) [Kd Ad 5h As]
Seat 9: Shorty (UTG, $26.25)

2 folds, 2 calls, LAG raises $6 to $7, Hero calls $6.50, 1 fold, Shorty raises $19.25 to $26.25 and is all-in, 2 folds, LAG raises $63 to $89.25, Hero raises $55 to $144.25 and is all-in, LAG calls $55.

As it turned out it was a near worst-case scenario for the main pot. Shorty did in fact have AAxx. LAG + Shorty had 3 of my diamonds, ruining what should have been my one strong side card. A world of hurt 3-way:

pokenum -mc 500000 -o kd ad 5h as - 6c 6d 4d 3d - 8d ah 8c ac
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ad Kd 5h 74911 14.98 289763 57.95 135326 27.07 0.285
6c 6d 4d 3d 153178 30.64 346822 69.36 0 0.00 0.306
Ac 8c 8d Ah 136585 27.32 228089 45.62 135326 27.07 0.408

But the $236 side pot is a different story (note that I included Shorty's hand as dead cards):

pokenum -mc 500000 -o kd ad 5h as - 6c 6d 4d 3d / 8d ah 8c ac
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ad Kd 5h 303417 60.68 196583 39.32 0 0.00 0.607
6c 6d 4d 3d 196583 39.32 303417 60.68 0 0.00 0.393

p.s. LAG spiked a 6 and scooped.

[joewatch]

These kinds of numbers always confuse me. How is it possible that your EV is less than somebody else's in the main pot, but more in the side pot despite the dead cards? Maths guys, please explain.

[RoundTower]

[ QUOTE ]
These kinds of numbers always confuse me. How is it possible that your EV is less than somebody else's in the main pot, but more in the side pot despite the dead cards? Maths guys, please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Using a different example from the one above:

Suppose you have the nut flush draw with one card to come. Player A is all in with top set, Player B is all in in the side pot with you. To make it even simpler, suppose you also have the card that middle set needs for quads.

Now you have some EV in the side pot, but it is less than Player B's. You also have some EV in the main pot -- this time more than Player B's. Where did his EV go? It went to Player A -- the times he wins the side pot, Player A wins the main pot.

That's how what you describe is possible. What is not possible is that the % of time you win the side pot is less than the % you win the main pot.

[ QUOTE ]
These kinds of numbers always confuse me. How is it possible that your EV is less than somebody else's in the main pot, but more in the side pot despite the dead cards? Maths guys, please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]
It has to do with the fact that most of hero's "outs" in the side pot are cards that miss the 66xx. In the main pot though, these are mostly splitting cards with he other AA - so they only count half as much. Remove the other AA and these cards get full value thus greatly increasing Hero's EV.

To illustrate this, look at the win and tie columns for the AA88 hand. They're each about 27%. These main pot wins and losses get split among hero and 66xx in the side pot.

All the ties count as wins for hero in the side pot. This adds about 0.135 to hero's equity, bringing him to about 0.42. As for the AA88's wins, many of them occur when he spikes an 8. Most of these also go to hero.

When two AA hands face off against a third, completely different hand, most of the time the third hand either beats both or neither and so his equity 3 way is only slightly worse than his equity 2 way.