200NL, Big pot with TP+OESD

[DJ Sensei]

I'm starting to gradually move up into 200NL, this is one of the biggest pots i've seen so far (at least at this stage in the hand), and a fairly interesting situation arises.

New to table, no reads.

Seat 1: Button ($177.60 in chips)
Seat 2: Villain (SB) ($196 in chips)
Seat 3: BB ($126.75 in chips)
Seat 4: ($73.35 in chips)
Seat 5: ($179.40 in chips)
Seat 6: ($173 in chips)
Seat 7: ($187 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero (MP) (10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) ($229.80 in chips)
Seat 9: ($132.75 in chips)
Seat 10: ($19 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
Villain posts blind ($1), BB posts blind ($2).

PRE-FLOP
4 folds, Hero (MP) bets $7, 2 folds, Button calls $7, Villain raises to $25, BB calls $23, Hero (MP) calls $18, Button calls $18.

FLOP [board cards 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] Pot = $100
Villain bets $171 and is all-in, BB folds. Hero (has villain covered)?

I put villain on a fairly tight range of AA-QQ, or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. JJ or TT could be a possibility, but seem less likely from the preflop aggression OOP.

[yvesaint]

mmmmhmmmm AA-QQ, AhKh, how does fold sound?

[Bukem_]

I have to have huge respect for villain to fold here.

If you trust your read, then you're a tick or two shy from 50/50.
The pot has $100 in it before the all-in.
So you have to call $171 to win $271.
That's better than 50/50.

It seems the move is to call, but you have to be thinking about button as well.
Plus it's high variance, and if you're just starting to move up you may not like that.

[soah]

Fold to the reraise preflop.

Call the flop.

Board: 7h 8s Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.9781 % [ 00.46 00.01 ] { Ts9s }
Hand 2: 53.0219 % [ 00.52 00.01 ] { AA-QQ }

Board: 7h 8s Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 50.7071 % [ 00.50 00.01 ] { Ts9s }
Hand 2: 49.2929 % [ 00.49 00.01 ] { AhKh }

[Lucky]

get all in, you're 46-53 against AhAs, betting 170 to win 270, and maybe button comes along.

[Lucky]

[ QUOTE ]
mmmmhmmmm AA-QQ, AhKh, how does fold sound?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only reason to fold against the above hands would be to avoid variance if you're shortrolled or something.

[MTBlue]

Insta call. Don't call reraises with suited connectors if you don't like flipping coins.

[pokerjoker]

I have never seen a $100 pot with 4 people going into the flop at this level. What a great game....

FOLD PF.

This is an easy call post flop. if he has QQ-AA you have 13 outs+1.5 effective outs with ur backdoor flush. If he has AKh you are a favorite.