Strange action, trying to extract the most with a flopped boat

fnord_too · #1 03-23-2005, 01:02 AM

This one is weird. There have been one or two outbreaks of this pre flop action, and I figured with a pair and the button and likely multiple opponents I can look at a flop. I really see no point in capping it, so I cold call.

I am really surprised to see the flop checked to me, and UTG c/rs. One caller back to me and I need to decide if I will get more money by raising here or calling and raising the turn, hoping both opponents are trapped by the size of the pot even though that line screams trips or better.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $15.
UTG raises, 2 folds, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (14.66 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero ???

ggbman · #2 03-23-2005, 01:22 AM

Call. UTG will almost always lead the turn and MP will be trapped when you raise. Then hope UTG has AA and take it from there.

lostinthought · #3 03-23-2005, 06:17 AM

Easy call on the flop and wait to the turn to raise.

but, how did you justify the preflop call?

fnord_too · #4 03-23-2005, 09:52 AM

Well, the action got stranger. I smooth called the flop and UTG check folds (???) while MP pays off the turn and river with AJo unimproved (???)

As to justifying the call, I think having a likely 3 opponents in a big pot and the button I can play this for set value profitably, though I may be wrong here.

Jdanz · #5 03-23-2005, 10:13 AM

it think you're wrong here.

if you're playing for set alone you need to make up like 5-6BB which you might in the best possible scenario, but certainly not on average.

-JDanz

fnord_too · #6 03-23-2005, 01:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
it think you're wrong here.

if you're playing for set alone you need to make up like 5-6BB which you might in the best possible scenario, but certainly not on average.

-JDanz

[/ QUOTE ]

With 3 opponents and all that pre flop action, I think that is not too unreasonable. If calling is wrong, I don't think it is wrong by much. In this case, post flop action was rather curious and I only made up 4BB. I would expect at least 6-7BB post flop on average, but I may may be off here. (I think each opponent will put in 1BB on the flop on average and I should be able to get at least 3 more BB from my oponents on the turn and river.) So for 1.5BB I am expecting 13.5-14.5BB, I think that is ok.

Jdanz · #7 03-23-2005, 01:23 PM

not trying to make this out to be a big mistake, but i do think it's a mistake you're getting what? 3.2 to 1 on your 1.5 BB preflop (assumeing 2 players and BB call)which means you need to get that other (8-3.2)*1.5= 4.8*1.5~7.2BB somewhere. 7.2 is a lot considering you lose when you hit a set sometimes.

-JDanz