Bluffing with KQ

[AviD]

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My only concern with this play is whether PPs actually call down after we 3-bet.

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I think psychologically a tricky TAG with any pocket over 7 sees the A on board and says "the only hands I'm worried about are Ax. He capped PF, which means a big/decent A, AK-A9s. If he really had that why would he 3-bet me on this flop rather than waiting until the turn or river". At least that is how I'd see it, but it depends on what level of thinking is going on between you and tricky TAG. Does he think you'll 3-bet an Ace and know he'll call down or make a move with a weaker hand on the turn by CRing the turn.

If you had an Ace, you wouldn't want to push him off. He knows that, which is why I think he's more likely to call down with a pocket, esp > 77. He *may* fold 66/55/44 thinking you have an overpair to the 7s yourself. Beyond all that, if he isn't capable of folding, I think the flop 3-bet invites a turn CR from a tricky TAG whether he has the Ace or a pocket pair. But I don't think he is betting the river without an strong Ace and you can't bet the turn and fold to a CR, nor call a turn CR even if you hit a K or Q IMO. So looking ahead, the 3-bet line puts you in a tough spot on the turn...again. Of course, if he calls...I think you are dead and have to give up on the river and showdown your K high. If he calls the turn raise, he isn't folding the river for another bet. If he 3-bets, whether tricky or not...you have to fold as well.

That's what I think, but my game has been all over the place over the last 6 months...so take it for what it's worth! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]