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#11
12-05-2005, 10:05 PM
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Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] definitely push. dont worry, just cause you got instacalled this time and missed doesnt mean you made the wrong play. [/ QUOTE ] I actually just called, turned an ace and he set me in and I donked off to a set of 3s. I feel sick about this one. [/ QUOTE ] i think you would have felt alot less sick if you pushed the flop and still saw the same result. you have alot better equity then. given youre read on villain i think you made the right play vs. his range of hands. tough hand though. 
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#12
12-05-2005, 10:09 PM
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Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
Yea, the plan was to fold to the turn push. That ace was pretty though.
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#13
12-05-2005, 10:26 PM
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Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
[ QUOTE ]
Yea, the plan was to fold to the turn push. That ace was pretty though. [/ QUOTE ] Yea, it's a tough situation. But the only reason not to push the flop is if you're sure he has a monster. If that's the case, the A on the turn really doesn't help so you have to fold to his push. By the way. The mere fact that he pushed the turn when an Ace came should have been a strong indicater that he did not have a middle pocket pair (the only hand you could beat).
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#14
12-05-2005, 11:25 PM
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Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
his raise is giving you 3:1,
you have 12 outs, thats only slightly -EV to just call to see the turn. However, the upside to this is that your have great implied odds to extract the rest of his stack when u hit u'r outs. whereas a push, u'll be a slight underdog in most cases or behind by a fair bit. You folding equity is near zero in my opinion after his 3 bet, so u'r at best 50/50 against him.
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#15
12-05-2005, 11:32 PM
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Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
[ QUOTE ]
you have 12 outs [/ QUOTE ] Hero could have as many as 39 outs. [ QUOTE ] the upside to this is that your have great implied odds to extract the rest of his stack when u hit u'r outs. [/ QUOTE ] If he's drawing to 12 outs none of them will have his opponent readily giving away his chips. (Meaning they are all fairly obvious draws) [ QUOTE ] You folding equity is near zero in my opinion after his 3 bet, so u'r at best 50/50 against him. [/ QUOTE ] I think his folding equity is slightly higher...but do we really want villian to fold to a flop push? (Note Hero is 60/40 vs JJ)
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#16
12-05-2005, 11:42 PM
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Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
domeski,
since hero didn't give me a read, I'm going to assume a avg opponent. Do the avg opponent 3 bet with JJ? do the avg opponent bet 10 dollars into a 24 dollar pot and then goes to 3 bet it to 85 with JJ? this stinks of something much strong. how is the wheel on obvious out? ( you can probably stack him with this) why do you think villian will auto fold once hero hit his flush? is that the only hand villian puts hero on? doubt it. there is alot of money yet to be extracted. Don't know about you, but i haven't played many hands where someon folded a 3 bet of approx 1/4 of their stack.
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#18
12-05-2005, 11:48 PM
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Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
[ QUOTE ]
why do you think villian will auto fold once hero hit his flush? is that the only hand villian puts hero on? doubt it. [/ QUOTE ] With bet, raise, re raise, call on that board I would put villian on flush draw. I believe most people would. [ QUOTE ] Don't know about you, but i haven't played many hands where someon folded a 3 bet of approx 1/4 of their stack. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think you understand how small his fold equity has to be on this flop to make a push profitable given villians hand range.
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#19
12-05-2005, 11:49 PM
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Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
Some of you guys doing like saying All-In as much as me.
I'M ALL IN BABY
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#20
12-06-2005, 12:26 AM
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Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
[ QUOTE ]
With bet, raise, re raise, call on that board I would put villian on flush draw. I believe most people would. [/ QUOTE ] And a push by hero doesn't look like a flush draw? (who actually pushes over cards? which is the next likely hand that hero might hold after raising preflop) [ QUOTE ] I don't think you understand how small his fold equity has to be on this flop to make a push profitable given villians hand range. [/ QUOTE ] Again, this is very read dependent and i don't think you should jump to the conclusion about his folding% when you don't know what villains range of hand to 3 bet is with. what do you put him on? you know against a set villain is 68:32 against a straight villian is 60:40 against 2 pair villian is ahead 57:42. imo those are the 3-betting hands that a avg opponent will put up. AVG. There would be practically no folding equity against those hands do you agree? what would villian put hero on and not call with those hands? When you guys say you'll fold instantly to a half pot bet when another diamond comes when you hold a set or straight, or when a 4 lands and you have a set every time is not being realistic.
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